Are The Tropics Getting Ready To Awaken?

If you've have lived here for a long time, you know Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. But you also know June & July are, historically, very quiet months when it comes to tropical activity.  Once into August, especially after the 15th, activity ramps up.  We already has an early burst of activity in June, but all has been quiet (Don doesn't count, too far north) for the past several weeks.  That's about to change as computer models are indicating 2 systems over the Atlantic may develop during the next 7-10 days.   NHC is all over it upping development to 60% on Invest 95 L. Let's check the Tropical Atlantic.

There is still a lot of Saharan dust north of 95 L , but NHC still believes it will develop due to the very warm water temperatures.  As you can see, the small L is well east of the Islands.  NHC has their hatched area extending westward based on the model run forecasts.

There has been a burst of storms around a weak center (white arrow) and if this strengthening continues, Tropical Storm Emily could be named later tonight or on Saturday.  Tropical Storm Don is completing a loop before it heads northward into the colder north Atlantic.  Another weak wave is moving over the Yucatan, but that moisture will not come our way to help break our current heat spell.

But changes are coming that will finally bring us some rain for later this weekend.

The center of the heat dome will retreat back to the western states with the nose over us being crushed southward by a deepening upper East coast trough.  With cold air higher up, that should allow T-storms to fire up as Zack Fradella showed us this morning.

Higher rain chances should result in less hot highs. It won't last very long as the upper ridge builds back over us next week.  With the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo beginning Thursday morning, we always know it'll be hot.  What we don't want is any tropical threat and this year looks fine.  You still have time to register (www.tarponrodeo.org) and give yourself the opportunity to win our Grand prize of $10,000!  Don't fish?  No problem as just by registering you're in the drawing for the cash prizes.  Live in Boston, Chicago. Oklahoma or Colorado?  Doesn't matter.  If you register ($55), you're in the drawing no matter where you live.  Register and support the oldest fishing Rodeo in the United States. After Hurricane Ida, Grand Isle needs a strong Tarpon Rodeo.

This year's President (Frank Beeson) will be on the FOX 8 Morning News this Monday at 9:15 AM with the little fella.  Make sure to watch.  Again the Rodeo begins next Thursday at daybreak and ends Saturday at 6 PM.  The awards ceremony and drawing will happen under the Pavilion at the east end of the island at 8 PM.   Will I call out your name as the winner?  Can't win if you don't get in

Note the storms to our north.   Despite what the network news programs blast out every night, our nation is not on fire.  Notice the comfortable temperatures north of the frontal boundary.  Sure Phoenix is smashing records, but google "Phoenix population 1950 vs 2020".  With 16 times more people, no wonder they're hotter.  More roads, homes, concrete, pavement etc, man has caused the climate to warm.  But is it a sign of "global" warming?  Build in a desert and you shouldn't be surprised that it's very hot.  Stay tuned!