Rare Day In September With No Rain...

In early September before the real old fronts start coming, a typical late summer day here typically sees morning coastal showers redevelop inland during daytime heating.  However, this has not been a 'typical' summer with the lack of daily storms and an upper heat dome that brought us a prolonged heave wave setting many high records.   The heat dome is gone, but an upper East coast trough has swept all the moisture away resulting in only a stray shower along the coast.  Look at how dry we are on the water vapor view.

Yeah, we're still 90+, but without the humidity (dew points in 60s) it feels quite nice outside, especially at night.  That summer heat dome is gone, although it's still warm to hot down south.

 So our attention returns to the Tropics where there is lots of action going on far away from us.  Let's start from the big picture.  Tropical Storm Margot looks to be nearly a hurricane, but she'll stay way out to sea. 

Before we focus on Lee, look at the southern Caribbean.  There is a well defined mid level swirl, but NHC isn't talking about it. Probably because models don't show any development. Lee's cloud structure has become better organized today and he's back to a Cat. 3.(120 mph)

NHC expects him to reach Cat. 4 tomorrow, but movement during the next 2-3 days will be very slow.  They still turn it to the north, but there 5 day doesn't show beyond that.

The Spaghetti plots keep the track east of Cape Cod, but not by much.  Note the bottom view is the GFS for next Saturday night.  Close call.

These view are also from the GFS 2 weeks from today bringing another hurricane into NYC.  Before everyone starts a social media panic, remember the GFS has done that numerous times this summer and it's been notoriously WRONG.  No model has anything in the Gulf for the next 10-14 days.  I will not even think about calling the Fat Lady" to sing before mid October as the Gulf waters remain mid to upper 80s.  It will take many fronts to cool it down for us to feel safe.  Stay tuned!