Southern Stream Getting Active, Highest Rain Chances in Months...

I think all of us are tired of hearing about marsh fires & super fog.  One way to end that is for it to begin raining.  Finally, after 5 months of way below normal/average rainfall, the next 7 days bring an opportunity to end the fires & cut into our drought deficit.  Currently, we are over 28" below average/normal!  It'll take more than one or two or three rainstorms to moderate our drought, but let's get started.

Clouds have increased and widespread showers are breaking out along and ahead of a slow moving cold front.  That front will stall just to our south this weekend giving us the potential for 2-3" of rain during the next 7 days.

The main jet stream is over the northern tier of states, but the southern stream (sub-tropical jet) has become active as expected during an El Nino Winter.  You can clearly see the 20-30 degree temperature contrast either side of the cold front.  Of special; note is the near 70 dew points surging over Texas & western Louisiana.  With deeper low level moisture colliding with the shallow colder air, conditions are se up for several days of over running rainfall.

Much of the extended period will depend on whether a surface low develops early next and brings the heavier rainfall over us as Amber Wheeler showed at 4 PM.

The European is indicating as much as 4-5" of rain over the next 7 days.  That might be too aggressive.  I'd be happy if we get 1-2" with another round coming Thanksgiving week.  Whatever, the next week will not see much sun and noticeably cooler temperatures.  After all, we're in Fall.  Stay tuned!