Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Gosh, I apologize for missing the end of the 2023 Hurricane season.  Here we are on December 6th and it dawned on me I didn't give a recap.  So before we talk about our weekend cold front, let's begin with how quiet the 2023 season was FOR THE NORTHERN GULF.  Yeah, it was an active season, but location matters.





Technically, it was the 4th most active season with 20 named storms, but 3-4 of those where "wasted names" since the system lasted less than a day or never affected any land areas.  In fact, most of this year's named storms didn't affect land.  Check out the tracks.





Yep, only THREE out of 20 crossed the U.S. coastline with only Idalia reaching the coast as a Hurricane.  Officially, Idalia was once a Cat. 4, but at landfall was less than a Cat. 2 with no winds on land greater than 85 mph.  Will NHC downgrade this storm after further review like they did with Audrey?  Probably not since it doesn't fit the narrative.



You can clearly see why we don't get hurricanes in the Winter around here.  Almost all of the Gulf has cooled to below 80 degrees.  On focus now shifts to Winter impact weather (freezes & snow!)





The early season cold has been centered on the Great Lakes & Northeast as the upper trough doesn't extend down over us  We'll need to watch for that "Polar Vortex" setting up later this month into January & February.  For now, we have no major issues with the cold, although north of Lake P. tonight could approach freezing.



The warm up begins tomorrow and will last into Saturday ahead of our next cold front.  Unlike last weekend's rains, this front should fly through limiting the rain totals to 1-2" AT MOST.  However, there might be a severe threat after dark on Saturday as Nicondra pointed out on FOX 8 at 4 PM.





There will be quite a cool down behind the front for next week, but I don't see any freeze threat south of the Lake.




So let your city councilperson know there is a FOX 8 FIRST ALERT for Saturday night.  Hopefully, they can alert city officials so they won't be "caught off guard" like last weekend!  Stay tuned!

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