Dry Week Ahead, Until Weekend Parades

When I moved down to NOLA back in 1978, I learned all the folks wanted to know were 1) will it rain on MY parade? & 2) Where's the hurricane going?   In my youth raising three boys, journeying to parades became a way of life.  I remember buying a ladder & outfitting it with wheels & a seat on top.  Why?  At 5'4", the only way I could stand out to the riders was to be up on my ladder.  So yes, I get what the folks want to now at this time of the year.  I begin with why we will be dry for most of this week. Saturday's cold front has pushed down over the Yucatan with cold air clouds developing over the warmer waters of the central & southern Gulf.

There is a weak upper feature south of the Baja that will spread some high, thin clouds over us for Wednesday & Thursday.  But for now, we're surrounded by clear skies.  An upper disturbance is leaving the Northeast with a fast moving "clipper" sinking down into the Great Lakes.  Look how dramatically the upper pattern changes as we head towards this weekend.

Under the satellite view is the upper air at 18,000'+.  The 1st graphic is current with the 2nd valid for Wednesday AM taking the clipper  into the SE.  The 3rd graphic is valid for Friday with a fast moving western upper trough cutting across the Rockies.  Note how that closes off on Saturday over Colorado & is moving across Texas and Arkansas on Sunday.  What does that mean for us.  Nicondra had the current model timing on her noon program.

IF you want to believe the model, Friday looks dry on into mid day to late afternoon on Saturday.  Sunday may begin wet, but should dry out by the noon hour.   My thinking?  It's way too soon to believe in the model timing.  bottom line, our dry stretch of weather won't last and there will be some rain issues this weekend.  FOX 8 is issuing a First Alert for some strong storms, although that's still 4 days away.  Here's the forecast challenge and it starts out over the Pacific.

There are many upper disturbances south of Alaska that has pushed very mild air into southern Canada & the western U.S.  Note mid 50s north of Calgary!  That flow has cut off the Arctic cold shifting it westward across Alaska & back into Siberia.

The current surface map is the quiet before the weekend storms.  72 in Dallas?  Sweet!

We've warmed into the 60s and tomorrow could flirt with 70!

I'm thinking the 65 tomorrow is way too conservative IF we have lots of sunshine.  Again, there is a First Alert for Saturday into Sunday.  Finally, look at the current snow cover.

Remember all the snowfall around Memphis, Nashville & Louisville last week?  All gone as this weekend's rainfall melted it all away.  Where's it going?  Down the Mississippi over the next 2-3 weeks.  Our River gage could reach 10'+ by Mardi Gras.  Stay tuned!