Weekend Weather Woes Will Depend On Timing...

I was always uncomfortable showing the forecast beyond 3 days since I knew the level of skill dropped off dramatically for days 4-7.   But that is not what the public wants to hear.  They want NHC to forecast the hurricane track out to 5 days. They demand local broadcasters to give them a 7 day FORECAST when in reality, it's only an OUTLOOK or best guess.  But it's Mardi Gras parade time, so damn the torpedoes & full speed ahead!  The next 3 days look dry, but late Saturday into Sunday appears not only wet, but possibly stormy.

The FOX 8 Weather team has issued a First Alert emphasizing they'll have a better idea regarding timing by Thursday.  It's really too soon to cancel/change any plans until we get closer to the weekend.  So where is the bad weather coming from?

 

Certainly, it's not the upper low dropping across the Great Lakes or the weak upper system coming across Mexico.  It's the huge swirl off the West coast that models slam it into California and then over the Gulf South.  We begin with the upper air views with the top view valid now.

The Low over the Great Lakes flies off the SE coast with the next views valid for Thursday, Friday, Saturday & Sunday.  The California disturbance plows into the West coast and reforms east of the Rockies.  With such a pronounced signature on the computer model, we're likely to see explosive development of storms here Saturday night into early on Sunday..  The GFS shows the model timing right now.  The top view is valid for Saturday morning with the rain still to our west. But by 6 pm heavy rains have spread over us.

The bottom 2 frames are Sunday morning and Sunday evening.   With such a fast moving disturbance, rainfall amounts should be kept to 2-4"

We do have a weak front sliding in (backdooring) from the NNE tomorrow.  The core of the cold will stay well to our north & east with warmer air returning ahead of the weekend system.  The warming will be limited by clouds & rainfall.

Today was almost perfect for late January as we topped 70+.  Most of the nation remains above freezing, but the storm off of California might signal a cooldown for next week?  Enjoy the rest of this week.  Stay tuned!

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