Midday Update On Coming Severe Threat

I'm posting early to calm the nerves of folks who are expecting the well advertised severe threat for later today.  Most schools have let their students leave for home at the non hour and that's probably the cautious, wise approach.  However, we are many hours away from any flooding rains with the severe risk coming (if it comes) after dark towards midnight.  Rather than go over all the current watches & warnings, let me start by saying SPC has yet to issues any Tornado Watches.  Here's the set up.

100% chance for rain does NOT mean it will rain 100% of the time.  It refers to aerial coverage.  Currently, the rain is coming in waves with dry slots between the waves.  The first wave is already north of Lake P, with another forming offshore our coast with even more farther to the west.  What we don't want to see is the rain pattern shift from south to north moving waves to SW-NE LINES of storms that create the "training effect".  Computer models suggest that with bands of rainfall exceeding 4-6"+ right over NOLA.

No signs of that happening until probably after dark this evening & overnight.  Here's the timing from Nicondra's noon program.

So for the South Shore, the next wave moves through between 3-6 PM with a lull for many hours until the band (squall line?) passes after midnight.  As long as we have waves moving through & not stationary lines, the pumps should be able to keep up with flooding.  You probably would be prudent to be home or off the streets between 3-6 PM.

Surface winds are currently running 20-30+ and there is a high wind warning out for this afternoon and evening.  I'll close with saying again, SPC has yet to issue any Tornado Watches.   That is likely to change, but for now it waiting and watching as there is no immediate need for action.  Another update after 4 PM. Stay tuned!