Either Feast or Famine, More Heavy Rains This Week...

It's less than 3 months ago, but most of Louisiana was in extreme or exceptional drought.  Remember our Summer from Hell when we had little rain and many 100+ degree days?  We then transitioned into a rainy Fall & Winter wet pattern that looks like it will continue this week.  Look at how rapidly we went from drought to out.  The top view is last December.

The middle graphic is from early February with the bottom the most recent.  But look at the rainfall total forecast for the next 3 days.  In the broad brush top view, the red & oranges indicate 2-4"+ amounts.

The next 2 views are more focused, but remember, we're still 2 days out.  These graphics will change.  Bottom line, we have 2 opportunities this week for more soaking, possibly flooding rains.

So what will cause us rain issues?  Wish I could show you the disturbances on satellite views, but I can't.  I've drawn the upper flow on top of the clouds and the southern stream (sub-tropical) remains right over us.  

There is a weak disturbance off the Florida coast, but I can't see anything coming to our west.

What ground truth data does show is Springtime warmth (Chicago 70+!) surging out of the Gulf with mid to upper 60 dew points.  That will provide the fuel for the rainfall & possibly severe storms.

As Hannah Gard showed us this morning, the SPC severe risk is only level one.  Here's the computer timing from this morning.

What we have to watch for are any bands of heavy rain that starts "training".  The new term is "weather impact day".  I called it "pay attention time".   Whatever, keep up with the forecast tomorrow & Tuesday.  We have plenty time to deal with next Friday.  Stay tuned!