Do You Believe In Magic?

After yesterday's weather stayed dry for the Rolling Stones concert, today began looking dreary with little hope for any breaks until late afternoon.  But like the hit song from the Lovin' Spoonful back in 1965 said, "Do you believe in magic in a young girl's heart, how the music can free her whenever it starts, and it's magic if the music is groovy."..and almost as soon as the music started shortly before noon, buda boom, like magic a hole opened up over SE Louisiana.

Some of you may say..."that's just dumb luck."  While many of us truly believe it's God winking saying " although there are many issues that tear us apart, Music (like sports) brings us all together.  Today's crowds at Jazz Fest were huge once the weather broke.  How about the rest of the weekend?  The problem continues to be a stalled upper western trough with waves/spokes of energy racing along the eastern side that models seem clueless to forecast.

We have no fronts around us so the weak upper disturbances are the trigger for our rain chances.  Look at how chilly it is under the trough out over the Rockies.  Snow is still falling the first week in May! Forecast models have not handled all these weak upper systems.

So until the upper pattern changes, don't expect any real weather changes except it will get hotter.

All computer guidance is suggesting we'll see our first 90 degree day next week.  But don't despair, we're not done with cool fronts.  look how the upper air flow finally changes.  The top graphic is now followed by Sunday morning's forecast of a new low diving along the West Coast.  Watch where that goes.

it streaks eastward into the Plains and by next Friday (bottom graphic) it has the trough forming over the East Coast.  That should result in more fronts dipping our way which should temper the early season heat.  Finally...

There is a plume of dust streaming off of Africa which is typical for this time of year.  Will it mean anything during this upcoming Hurricane Season that is predicted to be Historic, a blockbuster, a season from hell?  Nope, however, if it's still there come August, it could mean the "experts" are going to be wrong.  Let's hope so.  Stay tuned!