Beryl Getting Better Organized, Models Focusing In On Texas

This is my mid day update with a storm in the Gulf.  Satellite pictures clearly show Tropical Storm Beryl has moved far enough away from land that she's starting to become better organized and Recon data indicate surface pressures are lowering.  It's only a matter of time before Beryl is again a Hurricane.  Here are the views from above.

Beryl will not likely see any rapid intensification as some drier air is flowing around from the south and eastern sides.  But that should not continue.  I placed an X where I believe the surface center is while the O is the mid level circulation.  They are not far apart and I expect them to become better aligned this PM.  So let's go through the NHC thinking.  They have her becoming a Cat. 1 hurricane well before landfall indicating their intensity errors are often off by a category.  Texas should prepare for a possible Cat. 2.

NHC is following the guidance from their computer models, which we know get more accurate the stronger the storm.  Right now, Beryl is rather weak, but it's hard to go against so much guidance that points to landfall between Corpus & Houston.  In fact, the last 3 centerline track forecasts from NHC are identical.  We begin with last night at 10 PM followed by 4 AM and then 10 AM.

Can you see any difference?  I can't, which tell me the NHC specialists are very confident this will be Texas' wind, wave & rain storm.  So what might shift this official track more to the right before landfall?

I've drawn over the satellite view the upper wind flow.  There is an upper low/dip over the Dakotas that should deepen the upper trough that should pick/turn Beryl to the north & then northeast. But why would she shift right of the NHC track?  As a rule, the stronger a storm, there will be a turn to the right as opposed to a weaker a storm.  So let's see what happens with Beryl's intensity this afternoon and tonight.  Right now, the main heavy rain threat focuses on Texas.

IF we are to get any major impact from Beryl, that would happen on Monday & Tuesday after she becomes a slow moving Depression heading across north LA/MS.  We could see a training band of tropical rainfall set up over us.  But this will NOT be a major wind & wave storm for SE LA/MS. I really have no new nuggets of information that is not already on the NHC website.  My next post will be after 4 PM when we'll see if Beryl is truly strengthening again.  Beryl is a well advertised storm and Texas will not be surprised.  Stay tuned!