Lessons After Beryl, Quiet Tropics For Weeks

Kudos to the NHC for sticking to their forecast track once the models relocated the earlier landfall predictions from Mexico south of Brownsville to north of Corpus Christi.   Obviously Hurricane Beryl's name will be retired for being just about the earliest everything.  Let's review and add on some comments.  Beryl is the earliest Cat. 4 or 5 storm ever for July, but we should not be surprised since we were told water temperatures out in the Atlantic were at all time records. Hurricanes get their "fuel" from warm water.

Here's what bugs me.  Why did Beryl weaken as she crossed the Caribbean since that's where the highest Oceanic Heat Content is?  OHC refers to water warmth to depth and not just at the surface.

As you can see by her track, she went right over the warmest waters yet weakened from a Cat. 5 down to a Cat. 2 at landfall on the Yucatan.  The easy explanation is increased upper wind shear, but I think it's more than that.  In previous posts, I've talked about Joe Bastardi's (Weather Bell Analytics) opinion that Beryl exploded east of the Islands since that's where the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the favorable (rising air) phase.  But Joe said the farther west over the Gulf & Caribbean the phase shifted to unfavorable (sinking air).  I'm not whining about this, but just asking why you don't hear more reasons why Beryl would weaken?  After going over land, NHC did say it would take time before the storm could regain hurricane strength in the Gulf and they were correct.

As the track map shows, Beryl didn't become a hurricane again until she was only 30-40 miles from the coast.  Watching the videos on TWC showed me that even a Cat. 1 storm needs respect.  IF you live outside the levee protection/risk reduction system, you must evacuate for even tropical storms.  We know our rebuilt levees will hold up to Cat. 1,2 or 3 storms, but as views from Houston indicate, power outages become an issue.  Before we get into the heart of the season (Aug-Sept), I'll review what we must do to be prepared.  This time, Beryl was not our storm.

As she moves north of us tomorrow, let's pay attention to that trailing rain band draped along the Sabine River.  I don't expect it to hold together, but as Yogi Berra once said, "It isn't over until it's over"!

Beryl's impacts on us have been minor with nice breezes & some higher tides & waves.

Today's showers have been mainly to our east along the Mississippi coast.  That might change tomorrow?

Once thing for certain, after Beryl, the Tropics are going quiet for several weeks.  Why?  The tropical wave train coming off Africa is dead for now.

Better yet, the Saharan Dust blankets the MDR (Main Development Region) and Caribbean.  We even saw some of it this morning as our sunrise was very hazy.  Whatever, The Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo is July 25-27th and I proclaim no storms before August at the soonest!  Stay tuned!