NHC Steady As She Goes, Cloud Clusters Increasing As Models Still Confused

 There has been no change in the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) issued at 1 PM with NHC keeping the odds for development at 60% this coming weekend somewhere around the Florida Peninsula.  What I have seen is a dramatic increase in the cloud clusters, however, there is yet any organization apparent on satellite.  We begin with the area of concern from NHC followed by the day to day changes in satellite appearance.

The middle view is from 2 PM Tuesday with the bottom being 2 PM today.  Need I point out the eruption of clouds?  But I will.

Sure there are way more cloud clusters, but the color infrared shows absolutely zero organization.  Translation, there is no defined center for models to latch onto and we know models suffer with uncertainty when a storm is weak or ill-defined.  Keep that in mind as I explain the latest model solutions beginning with the Euro, which has been consistent for days with turning any disturbance east of Florida.  Today it has done a flop to the west.   The top view is valid for Friday AM followed by Tuesday AM

Yikes!  The Euro (if you believe it!) shifts the energy westward off the coast north of Tampa before finally taking whatever forms up off the Carolina coasts by Tuesday AM (bottom view). That slow movement sends up to me an Alert for central & north Florida for heavy, flooding tropical rainfall.  But what about the GFS?

It's not very different from the Euro in the top view valid on Sunday AM, but by Monday the GFS develops a stronger system near the Euro position.  The real differences occur beyond that.  Look at almost zero movement by next Wednesday.(top view) that could dump 10-15"+ on central & north Florida. Pay attention!

The real difference with the GFS is, after stalling the disturbance for 2-3 days, it drifts the energy NNW while the Euro takes it NE.  That's two very difference solutions, but neither would have any major impacts here.   Bottom line, we begin August watching the Tropics like we always do.  RIGHT NOW, I have no concerns EXCEPT, nothing has formed yet so any belief/faith in model solutions is premature.

My gut tells me the current upper trough will lift out BEFORE whatever tries to form reaches Florida.  The current blocking upper Heat Dome is predicted to slowly shift back westward, so the GFS solution seems to make more sense.  Hey, nothing may ever organize and we'll just see a strong tropical wave move across Florida.  In the short term, the focus is on summer heat.

Watching TWC this afternoon talking about the "extreme heat" in New Orleans, one wonders how anyone lives here?!!!   C'mon folks, it's called acclimation.   When 90+heat arrives and stays for 4 1/2 months, we get use to it.  We are not like cities up north where the "extreme heat" comes and goes.  It is a more serious problem for them. For us, the only relief we get is spotty summer storms.

So if you are new to NOLA and going through your first summer, don't expect any major temperatures changes until the middle of September.  I love when a anchorperson asks the weathercaster, "how long will this heat last?!!!"

Finally, I found these graphics after hearing how the world is on fire. Sure there are many wildfires like every summer.

But do you see any trend that wildfires are increasing?  What the graph shows me is in the last ten years, this year is the second LOWEST number of fires.  The ? at the bottom of the graph asks why aren't we told this?   Hummm!  Stay tuned!