2 Main Models, 2 Very Different Solutions, NHC Increases Chances Again

As we near the heart (Aug-Sept-Oct) of the 2024 Hurricane season, we still don't have anything to track since Beryl made landfall back on July 8th. However, NHC is still going with increasing chances for development this coming weekend somewhere east of Florida.  Normally our main (GFS,EURO) computer models/guidance are similar or at least in the same neighborhood, but not with this system.  Let's begin with NHC's area of concern/interest and then see what's there.

From the Gulf across the Caribbean to Africa we have nothing that calls for our attention.  I've circled the two swirls I pointed out yesterday, but it's obvious neither has any storms around them. So why is NHC highlighting an area for POTENTIAL development?  As satellite views indicate, there is NOTHING there yet, just a tropical wave moving ahead of those two swirls.

What I do see is an upper Heat Dome that right now is blocking any storms from us.  So why all the fuss?  Blame it on the models, especially the Euro that forms our next named storm.

Both graphics are valid for next Sunday morning with the Euro on top and the GFS on the bottom.  The Euro starts to close off a low EAST of Florida, while the GFS has nothing.  Let's go out another 2 days (knowing uncertainty goes up) to see if any agreement. Nope!

The top view is valid Tuesday morning with the Euro taking what appears to be a Tropical Storm (Debby) east of the Carolinas while the GFS appears to try to form a low south of Destin.  Wow, what a difference!  Who do you or should you believe?   Go back to that satellite view with the upper air. It has an upper Heat Dome over us now.

The bottom graphic is the upper air forecast for next Tuesday showing that Heat Dome locked in place to our north.  IF there is an avenue for whatever forms to turn north, it'll be the upper trough pushing the Bermuda High back to the east allowing Debby? to turn up the East Coast.  But say it doesn't and the energy does get into the Gulf?  That heat Dome should steer whatever forms well south of our coast towards Texas as the GFS shows.

The top view is the GFS for next Tuesday followed by next Friday.  Number one, that's too far out to bet the house!  Number 2, the GFS does not strengthen the system.  Bottom line, we watch and wait and have concern but NOT anxiety.

So the current set up has the upper Heat Dome back reducing our rain chances for most of this week.  Good thing since we now have moved into the top ten (# 8) wettest Julys. MSY is now at 10.84"

rain coverage today is 20% at best, but we really need a few days to dry out.

I'm not going to dwell on the heat since we have another 6+ weeks until those first Fall fronts arrive.  I will focus on the Tropics and on the decision you'll have to make if a big one comes.  Do you stay or leave?  Stay tuned!