Quick Holiday Tropical Update, Cancun, Cozumel Tonight, Then Texas

Here's a quick tropical update on weakening Hurricane Beryl.  I don't need to repeat what you can find on the NHC website, but will add that,so far, Beryl has not brought any major surprises regarding track or intensity.  Initially, the rapid intensification before reaching the eastern islands days ago might have been greater than expected/forecasted, but since then the NHC has been spot on.  Why?  here's my take.  Computer models seem to do far better once a storm gets stronger.  The weaker the storm, the greater the uncertainty/error.  The stronger the storm, the more accurate the models are. Here's where Beryl is now and is going.

No, these are not from yesterday, but they look like it as nothing has changed regarding the centerline track. However, her satellite presentation is not the same.  The top three views are from 4 PM today when Beryl was downgraded to a Cat. 2.

Compare the two color views.  The bottom picture was when Beryl was a powerful Cat. 5 storm with 160 mph winds.  Thankfully, she weakened before battering southern Jamaica and the Caymans Islands and will be "only" a Cat. 2 when she reaches the Yucatan.  There are no signs that Beryl will have LA/MS impacts besides creating some strong rip currents and higher tides this weekend.   Locally, a boundary has formed along the northern Gulf coast increasing our clouds & rain coverage.

You can see where it's rained, temps are in the 40s while where it's dry, temps top 90+. The only relief at this time of the year will be those daily showers.

Finally, something to think about.  The bottom satellite view looks at the tropical Pacific Ocean, specifically, the western Pacific and Indian Ocean.  What's missing?  There are ZERO storms.  And now the Atlantic after Beryl looks to do the same.  My conclusion...it's more than just warmer water temperatures.    Enjoy the fireworks tonight.  Stay tuned!