There Is No Storm In Gulf, Plus There Are No Storms Period!

 I'm always amazed by some people who think they know, but don't know & will never know regarding tropical weather forecasting.  It's called guidance UNCERTAINTY the further out in time one goes.  So I had several people ask me while I was down in Grand Isle..."so what do you think about the storm in the Gulf next week?"  Just because a computer model at 10 days out places a storm in the Gulf doesn't mean it's gonna happen.  Let's go back to Hurricane Beryl 5 days before U.S. landfall.  What were models hinting?

Yep, Mexico south of Brownsville.  Reality turned out to be OUTSIDE the cone of error/uncertainty just to the west of Galveston.  You can't let computer models beyond 5-7 days become your FORECAST.  A forecast is more precise while an outlook is more general.  Nobody can forecast precisely 7,10 or 14 days ahead of time.  So let's begin with what we know. There is no storm in the Gulf.

NHC is suggesting something might start to form out over the MDR, but there isn't much there yet.

So, as always, we watch and wait on Mother Nature.  There is a cluster of clouds over the southern Caribbean, but that is heading into central American and then the eastern Pacific.

A more interesting feature is the "hybrid Low" off New England moving to the west.  It will bring some soaking rains to the Northeast tomorrow.  For us, we don't need anymore widespread heavy rainfall.

Clearly we are not seeing the Heat Dome over the southern states like last year.  Look at those 50 dew points over the Northeast.  Nice!  But 70+ DPs reach all the way to Chicago.  Misery loves company!

It's a pretty standard summer forecast this coming week.  Finally...

What a terrific 3 day International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo.  Only "bad" weather day was Friday and lots of big fish were caught including the winning Tarpon at 167.8 lbs.   My personal thanks to the Candies family for taking care of me, to our Captain Pat Belanger for her expertise and to my youngest son Justin who joined me from Oklahoma. He caught & released 2 huge 30+ lbs bull reds while the little fella brought in an 18 & 19" trout on artificial bait!  Nah, we didn't make the leaderboard, but the IGITR creates memories that are priceless!  Next year you should plan on joining us.  Stay tuned!