Finally A Pattern Change As Upper Low Will Bring Us Rain

After getting swamped with 12.92" of rain at my house in July, August flipped to nearly drought conditions with only .39" during the first 22 days.  But that will change, maybe as soon as Friday PM, but especially by Saturday into next week.  The upper heat Dome is still perched over Texas, but it's forecasted to shift to the east north of us.  Coming down the East coast is an upper trough that is dropping a weak low predicted to move down into the Gulf. We'll transition from being on the dry side today to getting on the "wet side" heading into next week.

There also is an upper low/tropical wave moving westward across Cuba.  The bottom view is the predicted upper flow for Sunday afternoon showing that low centered south of Houston with us finally getting into winds off the Gulf.  Today's water vapor shows us with the dry flow coming down from the north.

You can clearly see the wet side (green colors) on the surface map.  Today is the last day of lower dewpoints as the muggies are back tomorrow into next week.  The 50s & 60s dew points will be replaced by the uncomfortable 75-80 range. UGH!

Radar has some storms near Orange Beach and that activity will spread over us tomorrow, mainly along the coasts.  It won't come too soon as highs were back into the mid to upper 90s.

Just to get back into daily rain chances will allow us to be less hot.  The Tropics remain active in the EPAC where Major Hurricane Gilma is now joined by Tropical Storm Hone.  Both may bring Hawaii some much needed rainfall.

As I mentioned yesterday, often one Basin is active while the other is quiet.  Fortunately, the Atlantic remains quiet and that should continue through the next 7-10 days.

No model develops anything until the 10-14 day time frame, which we all know should not be taken as reality.  I thought this graphic from Hannah Gard captured how inactive this "hyperactive  hurricane season" has been.

Sure, we have had 5 named storms, which is about average/normal for late August.  But compared to 2023?  By the end of August we had 10 named storms.  All the "experts" called for a MORE active 2024 season due to record warm ocean temps. and low wind shear.  However, something else is at work (High solar cycle, Saharan Dust, Atlantic Nino?) keeping storms from forming.  Whatever it is, let's hope it continues well into September.  We still have a long way to go before the "Fat Lady" sings!  Finally...

When I was still on-air, I loved to point out features on the satellite views.  Nobody does that anymore.  For instance, look at these pics shortly after daybreak that found 2 storms south of Houston.  You could tell they were tall clouds by the sun's shadows on the western side.  Can't tell you why they formed since the water vapor channel had deep dry air all around.  Just find these things interesting besides talking about how hot it's been for the past 3 months!  Stay tuned!