No Podcast, No Tropical Threats, More August Heat

Several weeks ago, we ran a poll to see how many of you might be willing to pay for a podcast from me expanding on my views that I post on this blog.  My sons suggested , that since my Face Book followers kept growing (120 K) we should consider doing a paid Podcast.  I thank all of you who responded (over 1K) and to the 82% who said they would be willing to pay for added information.  However, my heart is just not interested in creating any additional stress in my life, and doing a podcast for paying subscribers would do just that.  My hurricane blog is not going away as Channel 8 is paying me to do that, and I hope you understand my concerns for my health as I age (77 in Oct.).  So let's talk weather and hurricanes or lack of. Historically, an area to watch in mid August is the MDR westward into the Bahamas.

That is pretty much where NHC has highlighted for development next week.   There is nothing there yet, but the main models develop a storm for next week curving it northward before it reaches the East Coast.  I hate talking about something before it even forms.

So if there is nothing there yet, why talk about it?  In this modern day of freedom of information, everyone has access to the models which show a named storm, perhaps a major hurricane east of Florida for NEXT week. Let's start with the GFS which was excellent with Debby.

The top view is valid for next Friday (Aug 16) morning followed by Sunday morning.  What gets the Hurricane Specialist's attention is models agreeing with location and intensity.  Here's the Euro for the same time periods.

And that is why NHC is highlighting an area for development.  Just remember, that's 7-10 days out and way beyond reasonable certainty.  As always, we'll watch and wait.  Debby has finally been downgraded to a Tropical Depressions over North Carolina.

One affect Debby had, that might help if another storm comes, is to cool down the waters of the eastern Gulf & off the East Coast.  Usually it takes about a week for those cooler upwelling waters to modify, otherwise above normal warm waters rule the Tropics.   Have you noticed the cooling over the northern states as the Heat Dome still sits over us?

You can see the flow coming out of Canada bringing relief to the folks up north. 50s & 60s in the Dakotas & Minnesota has folks breaking out the sweaters!  As Debby gets picked up by the approaching trough (yellow dashes), it might bring a frontal boundary of drier air down to us this weekend.  Nah, be happy with drier.  Cooler comes in October less than 8 weeks away!

Dew points are still in the 70s across Louisiana so expect another day of near record heat on Friday.  It's a rare day in the heart of Summer to find zero T-Storms from Houston to the Florida Beaches.

Without any rain, we flirt with 100.  This is dangerous heat and use common sense precautions working, playing or exercising outdoors.

Again, I'm humbled by so many of you willing to pay extra for my storytelling.  I currently spend 60-90 minutes a day researching all the data, finding the right graphics and then tying the narrative together to complete the story. I know you want more, but I don't have the same stamina I had back in my 60s & I'm enjoying my retirement.  I am here for you through this hurricane season.  Stay tuned!