PTC # 4 Will Become Debby Tomorrow. Appears to be Florida's & East Coast Storm

 Special thanks to Bruce Katz and others who spotted my misspelling of soon to be Debby.  NHC has started issuing advisories even though Invest 97-L hasn't strengthened.  They expect it to become better organized once it reaches the Gulf tomorrow and by calling it PTC # 4 (Potential Tropical Cyclone) they can put out watches & warnings well in advance so folks can get ready.  Satellite views clearly indicate the structure of 97-L is trying to organize as there is upper outflow on the northern side, but it still appears to be an open wave.

The color infrared has clusters of heavy storms firing off, but they haven't consolidated around a center.  So let's not get too carried away by the certainty of this initial track since the system still lacks a center.

Of course, I follow that centerline track to see the trend in thinking on storm motion.  We know from experience soon to be Debby will not follow that centerline.  My friends in Tampa down to Fort Myers want that centerline to keep shifting eastward placing them on the weaker side of the storm.  Spaghetti plots clearly shifted eastward over night.

IF nothing changes between now & Sunday, all of Florida will get a soaking with the heaviest focused on the West Coast where amounts could reach 6-12"+.  

Could this become a major Hurricane?  That's unlikely due to the limited time over water and the closeness to land.  However, the Northeast Gulf is very warm (near 90) so rapid intensification is possible.  So what should you do if you live in Florida?  Certainly you need to get to the stores TODAY or early on Saturday.  I don't see this as an evacuation type storm, but your local Emergency Managers will decide that.  Just use common sense in getting ready.  Please don't use the excuse that "I didn't know it would be this bad!".  Ida & Ian showed us how these storms can ramp up in a hurry.  After Florida, SE Georgia & the Carolina Coast will need to be ready for Debby as she could re-intensify over the Gulf Stream.  For Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama & NW Florida coasts, this will NOT be our storm, unless she stalls and does a loop back westward. That's happened before. (Betsy, Elena)   I'll post again after 4 PM. Stay tuned!