Gulf Low Sinking Southward, Caribbean Wave Crossing Yucatan, Focus Remains On Gulf

 The past several posts have mentioned my concern for Gulf development in September. That concern has not changed today, but in fact has increased for next week.  NHC on their 2 PM TWO increased the probability for development over the southern Gulf from 20% to 40% for next week.  No, this is not development from Invest 90-L, but from the interaction of energies from 90-L mixing together with the Caribbean wave.  This is a very complex situation compounded by an old stalled boundary along the northern Gulf  with an approaching cold front sagging to the south.  Let's begin with the wide set up and try to explain what could happen next week.

Since we have no well developed low pressure, computer models are struggling.  Look at the Spaghetti plots.  Pretty useless.

I point that out because the models I will show you are probably wrong.  But what if they are not?  First up is the GFS for next Monday & Wednesday at noon. On Monday, it has a close low/storm in the southern Gulf.

The GFS takes that system along the Texas coast inland south of Houston.  Nearness to land would keep it weak.  But look at a newer model called the Euro AIFS for the same time frame. The top is valid for Monday noon agreeing with the GFS on a closed low/storm in the southern Gulf.

But whoa! The Euro AI model keeps this system well off the Texas coast and brings it into south Louisiana as a Hurricane around midnight early Thursday.  Yikes! That's concerning.  However, there is nothing there yet so it's way too early to sound alarms.

The WPC's seven day rainfall totals have the heaviest amounts tracking along the Texas coast eastward across LA/MS/AL.  That would back the Euro AI forecast.  All I can say is we need to pay close attention to the Gulf even though a weak cold front might bring some drier relief this weekend.

Look at how much drier/lower dew points are behind the front.  So will the front make it through us into the Gulf?  I think so, and here's why.  You can follow the next upper energy diving across Wisconsin on the satellite view.

This feature is driving down some pretty cool air (October-like) over the Great Lakes and I think just by sheer mass/momentum motion will be enough to bump our current dreary weather offshore by early Saturday morning.  I think most of this weekend will turn out feeling great!

But the rain threat comes right back for next week.  In the short term, we have the stalled surface low over the western Gulf sending out waves of energy eastward.

I'm seeing a small swirl on radar south of Houma moving to the east.  By far, the heaviest rains are south of Lake P.  As this swirl moves to the east this evening, look for drier conditions after 7-8 pm.

One benefit to all this rain is lower temperatures that should mean lower energy bills!  Enjoy your weekend and Go Saints!  Who dats 31, Panthers 17.  Stay tuned!