The Stage Is Set, Preparations/Evacuations Should Be Nearing Completion

As I await the 4 PM NHC advisory, I'm expecting no major changes in thinking.  Hurricane Helene has entered the southern Gulf. An upper trough diving towards Louisiana will turn it to our east.  Florida's Big Bend is the Bullseye for destruction.  What remains to be seen is the degree of destruction.  It could be catastrophic, life changing with neighborhoods uninhabitable for weeks & months.  That will depend IF Helene reaches Cat. 4 or higher.  Let's begin with the set up of the upper trough that will turn this storm to our east.

Radar views do confirm an eyewall is forming.  

What jumps out on the NHC's 4 pm update is Helene is now expected to reach Cat. 4 strength.

It doesn't take a trained meteorologist to see that the cloud structure is "getting its act together"/better organized.  The color infrared has a well defined southern eyewall.  All factors point to rapid intensification tonight and Thursday. Here's the latest from NHC.  Category one Hurricane Helene is expected to rapidly intensify tonight and Thursday reaching Cat. 4 strength (130 mph+) well offshore from Clearwater/St. Pete/ Tampa.  Computer models cluster the center line with little shift in the centerline track.

The top view is from 10 AM while the bottom is the 4 PM update.  No change, meaning those along Florida's west coast will miss the eyewall.  Since this will be a large storm, there will still be significant impacts from Tampa/St. Pete northward. The dangers have been well advertised by NHC.

The intensification process should kick in tonight as the hurricane moves over the "Loop Current".

Wave heights already are 15'+ and tomorrow might see waves around the storm up to 30-40'. Rainfall will be the big concern, especially up into Georgia & Tennessee.

What this storm will bring to us is slightly cooler & much drier air for the weekend.  A couple of storms are along the frontal boundary.

That storm near Gulfport dropped heavy rain and small hail as it moved across St. Tammany causing many car accidents.  I-12 was closed for a while.

If you don't see a shower overnight, the seven-day looks dry for most of next week.  Prayer teams are needed for north Florida & states to the north as this storm will be wicked well inland.  Stay tuned!