Halloween Giving Louisiana Special Treat, RAIN !!!, November Caribbean Storm Still Possible

It's been 26 straight days (record dry spell 44 days in 1952) without rain that finally ended today.  For three days computer models have been advertising 60% chances while I suggested that might be too high.  Well, reality shows us that was too low as many areas across our state are getting good soakers.  The bulk of the showers have been to our west, but the trend is shifting slowly eastward.

All these clouds and showers are along a slow moving cold front that will stall out near us. Hopefully, the rain keeps coming over night as we need several inches to make up for almost 4 dry weeks.

Record warmth has surged into New England while the air behind the front is noticeably cooler.  It was a wet snow for much of the day in Minneapolis.  This front will stall out and retreat back away from us for the weekend as the upper low over the Great Lakes is not diving down into the Southeast.

Expect more summer-like warmth well into the first week of November. When the cold finally does come after the 10th, I expect it will be a sharp drop off . Finally, models won't give up on the Tropics.

As you can see, there is nothing there yet.  As Jim Cantore pointed out again today, there have only been 4 hurricanes in the month of November that made landfall in the Gulf...and NONE have crossed the Louisiana coast.  Bring on those fronts! Stay tuned!

Computers Still Trying To Get Storm In Gulf In November, Halloween Could Turn Wet?

 I was listening to TWC this morning and they were talking about only 4 named storms making landfall in the eastern Gulf in November.  None of them crossed LA/MS or Al coastlines.  I've mentioned several times the reasons why the tropical threat lessens the farther you get into Fall.  Let's go over them again.  Water temperatures are much cooler across the northern Gulf with only the Caribbean still with summer -like warmth.

NHC still believes (based on computer models) a depression/storm will form in the Caribbean NEXT week.  Both the GFS & Canadian bring a system into the southern Gulf.  Here's the 
GFS time line. The top view is valid for NEXT Friday 11-8

The middle view is valid for Saturday 11-9 with the bottom valid for Monday 11-11.  What a surprise, the system/storm WEAKENS as it moves over cooler waters and increasing SW wind shear.  But why would any system get into the Gulf?  After all, it'll be November.

We currently have in place a strong surface Bermuda High/Atlantic Ridge that will block any northward movement and send whatever forms westward.  But why should we believe anything that is out in the 10-14 day time frame?  Simple answer is you shouldn't.  There's a reason why only 4 named storms have been in the Gulf in November.  The environment just turns more hostile.  You'll see many blog posts hype up a threat to the Gulf, but remember, The Lady has sung and I'm a believer in history.

We are staying so warm due to that big ridge over the Southeast.  But look at the battle zone around that low with cold air to the north & west and lingering summer over the SE.

It's certainly Winter-like over the northern Rockies.  It's in the 30s in Denver while Oklahoma City is in the 80s.   This cold front will run out of steam before it reaches us.  But there is a plumb of tropical moisture showing up on Water Vapor that will bring us our best rain chances in nearly a month. The bright oranges & reds (dry air) have shifted to Florida while a weak upper low approaches from the Gulf.

We have a few showers around today, but most of us are dry on day 26 without rain at MSY.

Every channel is calling for 60% rain coverage on Halloween, but I just remember it's hard to break out of a long dry spell without having a surface front to provide the lift for clouds/showers.   One thing for sure, there will be no cold front coming for the next 7 days as highs will stay 80+.  Minneapolis is expecting some snow tonight!  Stay tuned!

Models Were Right, 20% Rain Coverage, Front Will Stall To Our West,

Yesterday I showed you some graphics as to why the computer models, which were forecasting 20% rain coverage for today, would be wrong.  We have very dry air in the mid to upper levels and only in the lower levels did we have any moisture/humidity.  Without any front around and with the lower sun angles, I felt it would be difficult to develop any showers.  But wrong Weather Breath! Radar doesn't lie.

I guess that is about 20% coverage?  But what has changed?  The upper levels are still dry.

So what caused the surface convergence that formed these showers?  All I can think of is the tremendous increase in winds around a strong surface high bringing in higher dew points with the moisture piling up along the Louisiana coast.

Look how wave heights have jumped compared to yesterday's 2-3 feet.  Our dew points are back around 70 making it feel muggy again.

80 degree warmth has spread all the way up to Chicago & Green Bay.  But look behind the front over the Rockies where snow is falling.

The 7 day rain totals keep the heaviest amounts well to our west, but as computer models are showing, there will be some spotty showers over SE LA.  The FOX 8 forecast has increased rain chances on Thursday (Halloween) to 60%.

I believe that may be a bit too aggressive since most of us are in day 25 without rain.  But give the models some respect!  One thing for sure is no cold air is coming for at least another week. Finally,

If we see another named storm in November it will be in the Caribbean.  Several models keep hinting something might try to develop next week.  Strong WSW upper winds will keep anything from getting into the Gulf.  Stay tuned!

When In Drought, Leave It Out, Caribbean Storm Next Week?

 We are now in day 24 without rain and I just don't see any showers coming here for the rest of this week.  However, if you watched any of the 3 noon weathercasts, rain chances will increase, especially on Thursday (Halloween).  At least that's what all the weathercasters showed us on their models.  Maybe there will be a stray shower, but I wanted one of them just to tell me what THEY thought, and not what the model showed.  My motto during a long dry stretch has always been "When in drought, leave it out", (Jeff Baskin)  Here's what I'd be showing.

There is nothing on satellite views and the water vapor has an upper high over us.  So how can we get any showers to form?  Lower sun angle means daytime heating is probably not going to bubble up any showers under that upper high.  But there it is for the next 4 days.

Maybe a front is coming?   How?  The upper flow has a western trough and a ridge over the Southeast.  Any front will stall well to our west and that should be where the rains fall as the WPC's 7 day rainfall totals indicate.

Hey, the models may turn out correct, but at least explain YOUR thinking and don't just show me the computer solution.  We are likely to stay warm and mostly dry for the next 10-14 days.  The upper flow has to change before we see more fronts coming.

It is chilly out west and Winter Storm Watches are up for the Rockies.  But that air is not coming our way for awhile.  

I watered my lawn and garden today.  Let's see if the models are on to something.  At least you know my thinking.  As for the Tropics.

There is nothing there yet, plus the upper level winds are screaming out of the WSW.  I'm sure Patty will be named next week, but she will never threaten the northern Gulf. The lady has sung.  Finally, check out this picture sent from my son (Justin) in Oklahoma.

Justin saw this lone sailboat on Lake Hefner as the sun was setting.  Usually by late October/early November most boats in Oklahoma are out of the water as owners prepare for freezing weather.  But not this year as 80+ warmth lingers.  I have mentioned before, when it is very warm for a long time, the weather usually flips to a much colder pattern for November & December.  We shall see. Snow geeks have faith!  Stay tuned!