2nd Wettest Sept., Model Consensus Gulf Unsettled, Beach Trip Still On...

Before heading into October, I mentioned yesterday that this was the 2nd wettest September, mainly due to Hurricane Francine.  We easily could have been the wettest since Francine's rains fell before Sept. 20th.  The last 10 days went dry, hence only the 2nd wettest.

So the 17.37" at MSY falls between the 18.98" in 1998 & the 16.74" in 1971.    Now we turn to October, typically the driest month of the year.  That of course depends on tropical activity in the Gulf.  NHC has kept their probabilities at 40%, mainly because there is model consensus that nothing major will develop and any development will be very slow.  Here's the set up.

Currently there is an old boundary across the central and southern Gulf.  Winds are northerly north of that boundary and from the SE south of it.  There still remains a SW upper shear that will limit any development while an upper low over the western Caribbean hinders any development there. The colored infrared view finds clusters of unorganized T-Storms.  Consequently, I have not changed my plans for this weekend's beach trip.

There still is an upper trough over the eastern states and that is bringing a weak cold front towards us.  I'm betting most of the rainfall this weekend remains south of the coast at Perdido Beach. The WPC's 7 day rainfall map indicates that.

If there are spotty showers, that why you bring rain gear!  I'm trusting the models are correct about not developing a well organized Gulf disturbance.

Temps ahead of the front are in the 80s & 90s falling into the 60s & 70s behind it.  This is not a sweater weather front.

I think most of us are ready for cooler weather?  The increase in cloud cover & some showers will make it less hot as we get towards the weekend.  Finally, Lady Gaga has a song called "Until it happens to you".  It can be used for many different things.  Seeing all the heartbreaking videos from the Southeastern states reminds me of why we feel for them.  It has happened to us (Katrina, Ida, Camille).  We feel their pain, their loss, their depression.  As a nation, I hope we learn we can't just rebuild back.  We must rebuild stronger so the next time we can weather the storm with fewer losses.  Prayer teams keep working.  Stay tuned!