Tropical Threat To Northern Gulf Decreases, Heading To Da Beach!

 Looking at all the computer models along with satellite views confirms my belief that nothing is going to develop in the Gulf and impact the northern Gulf Coast through next week.  I know the local weathercasters are showing models bringing us rain, but I always remember one of my former co-workers (Jeff Baskin) say, "when in drought, leave it out".  We have been dry since Francine 3 weeks ago and I belief the models are overplaying the amount of moisture that will move inland during the next 2-3 days.  Coastal locations have the better chances to see showers. There is an old boundary draped across the Gulf to our south with a mid level swirl south of Cuba.

The water vapor view shows several upper swirls with a VERY WEAK upper feature near Houston.  Notice all the dry air covering the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida.   When in drought, leave it out.  I'm heading to the Beach for my B-Day weekend.  I'm just not buying into all the models spreading rain over us.  We'll see.

The upper pattern across the nation has gone to sleep with a west to east (zonal) flow across most of the U.S.  Without any big dips in the jet stream, a quiet weather regime should prevail into next week.  

Besides that weak surface boundary over the Gulf, a weak cold front has sagged into our area essentially coming to a halt.  However, some drier air has filtered in as dew points are mainly in the 60s.

I know the FOX 8 seven day has high rain chances for Thursday & Friday (so do all channels), but I think that will be mainly along the coast and not over the city. I just wish one of the weathercasters would tell me what THEY THINK, instead of all showing me what the computer models indicate.  All signs to me indicate IF anything forms in the Gulf, it will be way down in the southern Gulf and move eastward due to strong upper westerly shear over the northern Gulf.  I'm heading to Perdido Beach in the morning.  I will take my laptop, but unless something surprising springs up, I don't plan on posting again until I return Sunday PM.  Stay tuned!