Bravo NHC's Accuracy 5 Days Out, Warm, Dry Weekend Ahead...

Years ago, my motto was "I want to be the bullseye at 5 days out" regarding the NHC's forecast track knowing the average track error was 150-200 miles that far ahead.  But no more.  NHC's forecast track accuracy has been on an improving curve for decades.  Their Milton forecast will only improve their numbers.  Look at what their INITIAL forecast track was for Tropical Depression Milton.

This was issued at 10 AM last Saturday morning.  Look at Milton's final track.

Now that's amazingly accurate!  Sure, NHC did flip the centerline several times, but not by much.  The final landfall was south of Tampa Bay focusing the greatest surge heights from Sarasota southward to Punta Gorda/Boca Grande.  The surge in Tampa Bay was worse with Helene since Helene went west & north of Tampa placing them on the strong side of her.  With Milton, they ended up on the weaker side surge & wind wise.  The heaviest rains with Milton were north of his track with 15-20" fell creating widespread flooding.  He was a bad storm, but fortunately for many, damage has not been catastrophic. Here's some views from Tampa courtesy of my former anchorman Tom Boyle.

Yeah, there are limbs down, but notice the trees are still standing.  After Katrina, most trees were stripped of leaves & power poles knocked down.  I believe Florida's power restoration will be far quicker than here after Katrina.  It was a strong storm with record tornadoes, especially along the east coast.  As we recall, NOLA was crippled for weeks after Katrina and most of us weren't allowed back for 10-14 days or longer.  That shouldn't be the case with central Florida.  In the midst of their suffering, let's not forget those still suffering from Helene, especially up in the mountain towns of the Carolinas.

With Milton now pulling out into the Atlantic, it's back to our weather, which is October's best. If you're looking for cooler air, you'll have to wait until next week as a big upper ridge is building over the country.

Notice the near 90 degree heat over the Plains.  Fortunately, our dew points are much lower so the warmth this weekend won't feel like August.

IF models are correct, a strong front will arrive late Monday evening bringing us sweater weather for Tuesday & Wednesday.  I'm thinking about calling The Lady to sing, but the GFS model puts another storm into the Gulf in the 10-14 days time frame.  I don't want to make the "Zeta mistake" of 2020 when that storm came in the last week of October.  The Lady won't sing until I'm certain "the party is over".  And I'm not there yet.  Stay tuned!