Before I get into this weekend's weather, I read several viewer comments yesterday regarding getting nervous because the GFS model placed a storm in the Gulf 2 weeks from now. C'mon Gang, what have I preached about buying into model solutions beyond 7 days? let alone 10-14 days out! But Mr. Bob, the models were so good with Milton way ahead of time. True, but do you remember Beryl? Models brought it across the Caribbean (accurately) and took it into the Yucatan (accurately) and then took it into Mexico south of Brownsville...WRONG! it ended up near Houston and had impacts into SW LA. Then there was the early track on Francine. Do you remember where she was supposed to go?
We weren't even in the original cone of error. Let's not put too much faith in models at long range. For now, there is nothing in the Caribbean except a weak wave that is going into Nicaragua.
This morning's GFS does develop a Hurricane (Nadine?) in the Caribbean for next Saturday, but look where it takes it.
IF you believe the model is right, it takes Nadine into Belize and never brings it back into the Gulf. I'm going to wait until next Friday (Oct. 18th) to have The Lady sing since I'd like to see more real cold fronts come south and cool down the Gulf. That won't happen until the upper pattern changes.
A large upper ridge covers most of the U.S. with a weak little upper low near Shreveport. We will see an East Coast upper trough develop by Tuesday & Wednesday and that will bring us some sweater weather. But not until then.
Note the 80s up to Chicago with the 90s into Kansas. This will be a beautiful weekend, but almost hot. Since the dew points are so low, it won't feel as bad as August. That weak upper low will bring some clouds overnight, but no rain since we're so dry.
The FOX 8 Seven day is being very aggressive on bringing us sweater weather. I think all of us are ready for that. However, I'm seeing the core of the chill staying to our north & east. Upper 40s across the North Shore might be too chilly, especially since we'll be so warm before the front arrives. Whatever, I'll be ready to put on my birthday pullover sweater. Finally, my friend Tom in Tampa says he's back in his house, but it has no power. A tree branch fell and pulled down the power line in his backyard. There are still many without power for this weekend. On the brighter side, airports have reopened along with the Orlando Theme Parks on a limited basis. Let's enjoy our weekend sunshine and stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment