Bob Breck's Blog: Now Mama, That's A Real Cold Front! The Lady Is Coming For Friday

While walking Bailey last night, it still felt warm and I wondered if the computer guidance (that said we'd be in the 50s by daybreak) was too aggressive with this cold front. After all, Lake Pontchartrain is still in the 70s. But when I opened the door to get my morning paper (yeah, old school), Bam! a strong north wind slammed into my face telling me my running shorts & t-shirt were not enough to keep me warm. I quickly headed to my back sunroom to check on my outside thermometer. It read 56, but that 20+ north wind made it feel like the 40s. Burrr! Our first real cold front and it'll hang around into the weekend.

We're not only 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday, but the dew points (lower 70s yesterday) have dropped into the 30s. That's seriously dry air that has prompted the NWS to issue red flag alerts for high fire dangers. In fact, today is day 12 without rain and I see none coming for the next 7-10 days. The cold air is flowing southward out of Canada as a deep East coast trough is pulling across the SE. In another 6 weeks, that kind of dip will bring us a freeze threat.

The upper trough is also bringing fast westerly winds over the Gulf effectively blocking any tropical activity from the U.S. With each front comes colder air that cools down the Gulf. The Caribbean still is warm, but look how the Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) has changed over the Gulf.

For Francine, Helene & Milton, there was lots of red (warm) colors with a well defined Loop Current. Now we only find several pockets of warm water with the northern Gulf dramatically cooler. That's why The Lady will be singing for us on Friday. She's flying in tomorrow night and is ready to put this hurricane season to bed. For us, colder air is our friend and those northerly winds will continue to bring it down into Friday.