PTC # 18 Will Become Rafael & Head To Gulf, NOLA In Cone

Recon aircraft this afternoon found a closed circulation down in the southern Caribbean, but it lacks any T-Storms around it.  But because it will impact land areas within 48 hours, NHC has made it Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) #18 with a track that takes it into the southern Gulf by Wednesday.

You can see the forecast makes PTC 18 a hurricane on Wednesday AM, but weakens him back to a Tropical Storm on Thursday as he encounters cooler waters and a hostile environment over the Gulf.  What do I mean by that?  Let's look at the water vapor showing all the deep dry air over the Gulf.

In addition, notice the Ocean Heat Potential/Content (middle view) drops off sharply over the Gulf with water temps into the 70s across the northern Gulf.  That's why models weaken whatever forms as the system heads farther to the north.  IF Rafael holds together, we could see some rain along with higher tides next weekend.  It certainly won't be like an August or September storm.  It may never reach the northern Gulf at all.  I'm not downplaying any potential impacts, however, storms in November don't like wind shear, drier air & cooler water temps.  We'll watch it as this will take its time churning the Caribbean.  The upper air pattern is not changing this week.

The trough will stay over the Rockies, along with colder, Winter-like air. We'll be flirting with record highs and lows all week.

So as the models are showing for the next 2-3 days, Rafael will develop south of Jamaica and head towards Cuba.  Once he gets into the Gulf,  the uncertainty increases.  I'm trusting the reasons why whatever forms will end up as a weak rain system at best, IF it heads northward and makes landfall.  It might just drift westward and dissipate.  Stay tuned!