Rafael Moving Over Loop Current, Approaching Cat. 3, But Not For Long

In my last post before I went fishing,  NOLA was in the NHC's cone of error for what has become Hurricane Rafael.  During the past 2 days, NHC has kept moving the cone farther to our south keeping whatever remains over this weekend stuck off the LA. coastline.  I begin with where Rafael was and then get into where NHC believes he will go.

As you can see in the middle view, the center of Rafael passed just west of Havana certainly causing issues we are all familiar with. (flooding, power outages, roof damages etc)  He weakened crossing over Cuba, but now is strengthening as he reaches the warm Gulf loop current.  Recon aircraft found winds of 105 mph.  NHC believes that intensity will be maintained until Rafael moves farther to the west into cooler water and increasing upper WSW wind shear.

NHC has stayed with the turn to the south, but I'm thinking the GFS might be on to something bringing what's left of Rafael moisture northward towards us.  It would be just a weak rain system IF that scenario proves reality and we could use a good soaking as most of October was very dry.  Regardless, Rafael will not threaten us with the winds and seas it currently has.

As with most November storms, they don't survive the increasing westerly upper shear.  So our focus shifts back to when will we get cold? As I've mentioned before, not until the western/Rockies upper trough shifts to the eastern states. it really makes a difference.  Look at how cold it is under the Upper low.

The light blue is snow falling over NM/CO.  Check out these web cams.

The middle view is from Boulder while the bottom one is my favorite!  That's the Breckenridge web cam where they have received up to 2 feet in the past 3 days and will open early this weekend.  Usually, ski resorts don't open until Thanksgiving.  So all you snow geeks, go west young man/woman!

Not only are we way above normal/average temperature-wise, dew points in the mid 70s are August-like.  We need that pattern shift to bring us some relief, but it won't happen in the next 7 days.  The higher rain chances this weekend will be some of that tropical moisture left over from Rafael running into a weak frontal boundary that will try to push near us.

Just don't see any real cold air until beyond the 15th.  Finally,

Our fishing trip with Hylton Petit & Johnny Lewis was a struggle finding the bigger, keeper fish.  We ended up with 29 trough 6 reds and one black drum.  The above pic is Johnny Lewis with a 30" redfish, which we had to release due to being too big.  Fall fishing will get better as temperatures get colder concentrating fish in the deeper holes.  I'm cooking fresh trout this weekend.  Stay tuned!