I know you all have seen the official NHC track that stalls Rafael tomorrow before drifting him southward (away) from us. I'm putting out this blog to alert you to another scenario. Joe Bastardi, hurricane specialist with WeatherBell Analytics, believes that what is left of Rafael will drift northward and then over us, which is what the newer European AI model suggests. Here's the latest NHC info.
The red line & Xs are Joe's thinking bringing a weak Tropical storm off the mouth of the river by Sunday morning. Why would he disagree with the NHC thinking? It's based on a new model called the European AI. We begin with the current location.
This graphic is valid for dark on Saturday which has Rafael getting closer to our coast like Zack suggested this morning. The next view is valid for Sunday daybreak. which has Rafael just off the mouth of the river.
The bottom view is valid for Sunday PM. What you should know, IF this scenario become reality, Louisiana & Mississippi & Alabama coastlines will see much higher tides, stronger winds with gusts above 40+ and rain totals of 2-4" +. Do I feel that might happen? Look at the latest WPC's 7 day rain totals.
There is a hint of tropical connections drifting into LA/MS. It could be a real rainy Saturday into early Sunday here. Rafael is still a powerful Cat. 2 Hurricane.
The color view (middle) has a pinhole eye around his small circulation. NHC's thinking rapid weakening will occur as Rafael encounters the increasing SW wind shear, but you can kinda see why he might do that northward turn. Hey, the Hurricane Specialists are really good. However, sometimes they are slow to change their thinking until it becomes obvious. Just don't want anyone surprised on Saturday (Tulane, LSU home games) if we get into a heavy rain event. Meteorologist Amber Wheeler just showed a model rainfall map with a band of 4-6" just south of NOLA. Pay attention time Gang. We need the rain, just not all at once! Next post around 4 PM. Stay tuned!
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