Sara Downgraded Over Yucatan, Week Starts Warm, Much Colder Finish

Sara was downgraded to a Tropical Depression as she's well inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.  NHC indicates any lingering remains once back over the Gulf will not reform into a Tropical system.  Some of her tropical moisture will lift to the north and interact with a cold front for us on Tuesday. Satellite views confirm a weak system now that the circulation is over land.

There is still a cluster of storms around the weak mid level rotation and that is what the spaghetti models are following into the Gulf.

The water vapor view shows the Gulf remains a hostile environment with lots of dry air in the mid levels.  Westerly wind shear increases over the northern Gulf and that is why NHC believes Sara will not regain strength.  And add in the flip flop in the upper pattern coming this week that we talked about yesterday.  I've drawn the upper flow on the afternoon satellite view.

The middle graphic confirms the upper trough is over the Rockies with a ridge over the SE.  The bottom graphic is valid for Thursday afternoon showing the Ridge reforms over the Western states with a low over the eastern states.  That will change our weather from summer-like to almost Winterish.

The real super cold will remain far to our north, but we should see a swing to below normal/average for several days later this week. There could be some heavy rains late Monday into Tuesday as some moisture from Sara interacts with the cold front.  WPC's 3 day rain totals indicate 4-6" amounts possible south of Lake P. eastward along the Mississippi coasts to Alabama into NW Florida.

Highest rain chances begin after midnight on Monday into mid day on Tuesday.

So let's keep up with the weather tomorrow afternoon through late Tuesday when colder air will arrive.  It will feel even colder because of the wind chill.  have your sweaters & coats ready.  Finally, I know it was just the Browns, but SAINTS WIN!  Stay Tuned!