High Severe Risk after Dark, Colder Sunday Into Next Week

The last severe threat turned out to be not much for SE LA/MS.  However, tonight's severe threat appears to be much greater.  A strong upper disturbance near Amarillo is coupling with low level moisture surging out of the Gulf to provide the ingredients for strong storms tonight.

 

Temperatures are in the 20s & 30s behind the front with 70s & 80s in the warm air sector.  SPC has all of the North Shore in a level 3 (enhanced) risk tonight with a level 2 (slight) risk for the South Shore.

So far, not much is going on, but that will likely change during the next several hours.  No watches are currently in effect at mid-afternoon. You'll want to have your phone near your bed tonight in case warnings are issued.  Make sure your FOX 8 Weather App is updated.

As this upper low races past us, it will bring in some colder air, but the core of the cold (freezes) will stay to our north.  Here's why.  Look at the predicted upper air flow beginning with the current position on top.

The middle view is valid for Sunday PM with the Polar Vortex dropping out of Canada.  However, the bottom view is valid Monday PM and it shows the Vortex does NOT come our way.  We will be much cooler than today, but no need to cover plants.  Today's model (GFS) is far less aggressive than yesterday's run for later next week. The top is valid for Thursday showing a trough along the East Coast that could mean a snow event?

The bottom is valid for next Saturday (2-22) and it deepens the trough over New England.  Notice for us the upper flow stays mainly west to east.  That should prevent freezing temps from coming down to the Gulf coast,  This extended forecast is from Ch. 8's morning programs. and is much colder than the newer runs.  

Make sure you check for later forecasts that come out after 5 PM.  I just don't see the freezes for Thursday & Friday mornings based on the latest GFS run.  We'll check it again tomorrow.

Driving around today you could find the "Tulip trees" (Japanese magnolia) blooming due to our recent warm spell.  The next two weeks should see more days below normal/average making for chilly viewing for Mardi Gras parades.  Let's pay attention tonight in case severe weather develops.  Remember the FOX 8 Weather App.  It'll wake you in the middle of the night IF warnings are issued.  Stay tuned!