Today was a beautiful day IF you were dressed for it. Skies were clear but the northerly winds had a bite as highs struggled into the mid to upper 50s. Things rarely stay the same at this time of the year and another possible severe weather threat arrives before daybreak on Wednesday. SPC has updated their tornado totals from the last system now confirming 14 touchdowns with 2 EF-2s reported.
The only touchdown in Louisiana was north of the Lake near Varnado in Washington Parish. We have another low coming across the northern Gulf that will bring us overnight rains Tuesday into Wednesday. We will briefly get into the warm air sector on Tuesday PM & evening. The top graphic is valid for 6 PM Tuesday with the bottom valid for 6 AM Wednesday
IF we jump into the warm sector, there is a small severe weather risk as SPC points out.
There is also a heavy rain threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday with a potential 2-3" across south LA/MS. Unlike our snowstorm back in January, we will be too warm.
At the moment, we are under a cool, dry flow across all of the South. I love looking at features on satellite views.
Skies over land are clear while cold air clouds develop offshore over the warmer waters. The brighter clouds are associated with the cold front that has pushed over the southern Gulf. We look back over the Rockies to find the next upper disturbance. Look at the flow over northern Canada coming out of the east! That is pushing the Arctic airmass westward and then southward into the northern states.
Phoenix is 73 while Bismarck is 14 below! So the question for us is...will that cold plunge down to us and cause more freezing nights? NWS says absolutely with the North Shore 24-28 Thursday & Friday mornings. They have the South Shore 30-35, which means we'll need to protect our plants again. Here are my issues why that might be too cold. We start with the current upper airflow that has the Polar Vortex way east of Hudson Bay in eastern Canada.
The middle view is valid for Thursday morning and the bottom valid for Friday morning. Do you see what I'm seeing? The upper dip is over the Great Lakes and Northeast and not down to us. That should keep the core of the super cold to our north & east. So why be concerned about a freeze? Look at the GFS snowfall forecast.
It puts a foot or more from Kansas, Missouri, and northern Arkansas into Kentucky. Remember when we had the snow cover in January? Lafayette dropped to 4 degrees and MSY 21. Expect those locations with snow on the ground to fall to near zero, and with a northerly flow of air, that chill will get close. I will wait another day before deciding if I need to cover the in-ground plants. I already have some tender tropical plants inside my He-Shed. Don't wait until Wednesday to cover as it will likely be in the 40s with wind during the day. In the short term, most of Tuesday will be quiet.
Brownville is near 70 so, IF we get into the warm air sector tomorrow, we could jump to 70-75.
A word of caution, the 7-day is from FOX 8 at noon. For some reason, the update, which usually is out by 3:30 PM, hasn't happened. Check with the FOX 8 website later. Finally, my brother-in-law (Jim Bell) sent me this yesterday from Boston's back bay after receiving 3-4" of new snow.
Just to show you how they cope with Winter, the sidewalks are cleared and the streets are just wet. Boston's winter snow total now tops 25" with at least 6 more weeks to add on to that total. Just hoping we don't add on to ours! Stay tuned!
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