"100 Million At Risk For Severe Weather..." Where? When?

I logged onto my computer this afternoon and was greeted by a scary headline.  "100 million at risk for severe weather Sunday & Monday".   Huh?  Not today?  Not tomorrow?  But Sunday & Monday?  Why scare us days ahead of time?  Is there a purpose in Alerting us days in advance?  Basically, it's called ratings and it's an effort to get more people to watch.  If there were no dangers coming, most of us would likely not watch every weather program or go to our favorite weather website.  We can blame ourselves partly because we demand to know.  But like the Hurricane Cone of Error, the farther out in time, the greater the uncertainty.  So let's see what SPC is saying for the short term outlook.  We begin with today on top with a level one severe risk over extreme South Texas and in the central Plains.

That doesn't change much for Friday with the southern severe risk expanding into SW Louisiana.  So maybe some showers here on Friday, but no big deal.  SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has a level 2 severe risk for Saturday, but it's not here.

So for the next 2 days, we might get wet at times, but there should be no major issues.  So where does the "100 million at risk" come from?  It the days 4 & 5 SPC outlooks.  The top is for Sunday followed by Monday's risk.

But remember, the farther out in time, the higher the uncertainty.  Then there's this gem from WPC (Weather Prediction Center).

That's the 3-7 day hazardous weather outlooks.  My motto has always been "Less is more".  I didn't want to confuse my viewers (most with limited science knowledge) with so much information that they get anxious worrying before they needed to.  What do you think?   Is it over hype 3-7 days out?  I think so. Let me set up the current weather pattern.  There is a huge upper low off the Pacific NW.

I've plotted 3 distinct upper swirls over Texas & Mexico that have triggered 5-10" rain totals over south Texas.  That is right where WPC predicted yesterday.

No model brings these heavy rain totals to SE LA/MS.   These weak upper disturbances will bring us periods of showers, but there will be many dry periods too.  Look at the surface map.  There is nothing there to suggest why it's raining except it must be the upper lows.

The real temperature boundary is over Missouri where Kansas City is 76 while St. louis is 52.

So some rain is coming.  Do we need to be alerted or warned every time it's going to rain?  Relax and enjoy these showers as they'll help our lawns & gardens start growing again.  Stay tuned!