Models Struggling With Rain Locations, Upper Disturbances

After some predawn showers, Saturday has turned out to be a very nice day.  However, that is about to change, at least for some of us.  Before I get into why NWS has issued a Flood Watch for tonight, let me try to explain why we stayed dry today.  I captured these infrared satellite views with the top from 11 AM and the bottom from 3 PM.

On both views, there has been clusters of T-Storms down well offshore our coast moving to the EAST. Another cluster of storms was over SW Louisiana moving to the NE.  That leaves SE LA/MS in a dry hole.  Models are saying that will not continue and look for several waves of storms slowly creeping over us tonight.  WPC has placed us in a level 3 for flooding, which indicates high confidence in their forecast.

The bottom view is their rain total forecast, which clearly favors south of Lake P.   But is that what we're seeing right now?  Nope.  We still have the storms down over the Gulf, but look at the large area of heavy rains to our west & north.

This is a lot of heavy rainfall, but I'm seeing a general motion to the NE.  That will bring it across the North Shore during this evening so if you live up there or plan on driving up there, you'll need to PAY ATTENTION.  SPC is not indicating much of a severe potential, but that changes for Sunday PM into Monday. Here's their Severe risk outlooks, beginning with today on top.

So what is causing all of this? A train of upper disturbances that race in from the Pacific, coupled with Gulf moisture, produce clusters of heavy rain storms.

Most of the clouds over the Southeast are caused by these minor upper disturbances and not because of any frontal boundaries.

You can see where the frontal boundary is far up north.  What concerns me is the high dew points along all of the north Gulf.   I won't try and smoke you saying I know what is going to happen EXACTLY.  But for tonight in the short term the North Shore is in the heavy rain bullseye.  Will that shift southward overnight, or just dissipate and reform back to our north & west?  Will severe storms approach us Sunday night into Monday?

Clearly, showing computer models is not acceptable since they have not been correct today.  But what else do we go by for guidance?  How about pointing out features on satellite views and showing where the rains are now on radar.  Keep your phone with the FOX 8 Weather App nearby for the next 24-48 hours.  Stay tuned!