Rare Level 5 Severe Risk for Saturday, Historic Tornado Outbreak Likely, Pay Attention Time

Our local weathercasters have been alerting us all week for the potential for severe weather on Saturday.  As we get closer to the event, confidence increases in the accuracy of the forecast.  So much so that SPC has issued a rare level 5 risk (High) for areas just to our north.  Much of the FOX 8 viewing area is part of levels 3,4-5.

To lessen the anxiety level for tonight, this outlook is for Saturday afternoon & evening.  We have no issues for tonight.  Today's severe threat is way farther to our north as an upper disturbance lifts to the NE. Here's today's severe outlook.

Severe storms today have been slow to develop, probably due to the lack of deep low level Gulf moisture.  The 60-70 degree dew points are just now surging into Arkansas and we are likely to see T-Storms erupt well into tonight up north.  Our threat comes as another upper disturbance approaches the southern states tomorrow and the dew points will be much higher.

As that energy comes at a lower latitude, it brings the split in the jet stream right over the southern states.  Look at the wording from our local NWS office.

To wrap things up, Saturday seems to truly be an upper-echelon
environment supportive of all hazards including damaging wind,
hail, and tornadoes (some of which can be strong and long-
tracked). Supercells capable of these hazards are expected to
initiate shortly after the LLJ arrives around 9-10am across the
Atchafalaya Basin and progress eastward throughout the day. If

I talked about over hype at 5-6 days out since there is nothing one could do that far in advance.  Now at 24 hours out, it's "Pay Attention" time.  This evening is fine, but after 10-11 AM on Saturday, you need to keep up with the weather and have your FOX 8 Weather App ready to alert you if warnings are issued for your location.  This is a one day event as Sunday will be much better.

A powerful surface low over Kansas is creating 60-70+ mph winds across the southern Plains/  That is causing a widespread dust storm that shows up on satellite pictures.

Fortunately this first batch of upper level energy will take today's severe risk far to our north.  The next system over California today will bring us tomorrow's severe threat.

I know many of you are nearing panic mode regarding tomorrow's severe threat.  I like what Zack Fradella said this morning.  Despite a large area under high risk, "95% of folks will not be affected, but for those 5%, damage could be severe or life threatening."   Take a deep breath, and know you just need to use common sense on Saturday and not be driving around if warnings are issued.   The FOX 8 Weather Team will be all over the air if needed.  Stay safe & stay tuned!