Wednesday's Severe Threat Staying Far North, Another Cold Front Coming

It seems ever since Fat Tuesday we have seen a very fast progressive (west to east) flow across the nation. Storm after storm traverses the country first bringing rain & snows to California and then severe weather to the Plains & Southeast.  The latest system coming out of the Rockies has prompted SPC (Storm Prediction Center) to issue a level 2 severe outlook for areas north of us.

That's where the main dynamics will be.  The difference form the last severe system is the limited amount of Gulf moisture that is returning northward.  Remember we had dew points 70+ surging out of the Gulf?

With this system, dew points in south Texas are still in the 50s.  So with less fuel to work with, I expect us to barely squeeze out a few showers Wednesday evening as the cold front sweeps by us.  The upper system is over the Rockies this afternoon bringing extremely strong winds (50-70+ mph) ahead of it. Dust storm warnings are up for NM/TX & CO.  

Clearly what drives these Spring storms are the upper dynamics & the temperature contrasts.  Temps are in the 20s & 30s over the mountains while 80s are surging northward all the way up to St. Louis.  We'll still be warm on Wednesday, but will need sweaters and jackets for Thursday and Friday.

This up and down pattern is likely to continues as storms are lining up off the West Coast.  

More storms coming means more snow for the Sierras.  You can see how the snow pack stands out on this afternoon's satellite view..  Off the East Coast, NHC is no longing watching yesterday's swirl for development since another low moving off the coast has created strong wind shear over it.

The primary reason we don't see Tropical weather in March is the water temperatures are too cold.  Aside from the Gulf Stream moving up east of Florida, water temps are in the 60s & 70s.  To fuel tropical activity, temps need to be 80+.   We have to deal with Spring time severe threats in March & April.  We don't need to worry about the Tropics for several more months.  Finally, I read that 100 years ago today, the Great Tri-State (MO,IL,IN) tornado killed 695 people with 234 of them in Murphysboro, IL alone.   Back then, no TV, no cell phones & no warnings since NWS didn't start issuing warnings until the 1950s.  Thankfully, technology has come so far that we at least know a tornado is coming.  Still, if it's an EF3,4 or 5, survival might be impossible.  No such issues for us here tomorrow.  Stay tuned!