One of the main things I tried to do during my 46 year on-air career was to minimize anxiety. With all the newer technology models going out 7-14 days, it's become "who can be first" to issue Alerts. Impacts or Warnings. Bad enough we MIGHT have severe storms. Now consultants advise clients to start talking about the POSSIBILITY a week in advance. Why? Does that help us get better prepared? I don't think so. It increases the "fear factor" to keep viewers watching. Here's what I mean. These are the graphics from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for the rest of this week beginning with Wednesday on top.
SPC places a level one severe risk to our west & north caused by a low off the California coast today. However, models weaken that system as it heads eastward. The top is current with lows off both coasts.
The bottom is valid for Thursday AM with a stronger upper trough diving down the West coast. SPC doesn't even have any severe storms over the South on Thursday. However, where is this next West coast system coming from? NO, not off California, but up to Alaska.
Geez, that's a long distance away to worry about severe storms, but the hype has begun. Why? because SPC puts out 4-8 day outlooks that are far less accurate than their 1-3 day outlooks.
The top is valid for Friday PM with the bottom for Saturday PM. Hey, maybe the GFS or Euro model will be correct. But do we need to be scared that far out? What's your take? I say NO! In the short term, our weather looks great.
The low over the Carolinas is keeping them chilly, but look at the warm up coming our way.
So don't hyper-ventilate thinking about Saturday's storms. IF that proves to be reality, we will have many days to get ready. It far too soon to worry, just enjoy being outside. Stay tuned!
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