Bob Breck Podcast Nearing Reality, Weak Front Might Get Close

I have always worked for a company and didn't realize what is involved in running your own business.  Thankfully, my oldest son (Rob) has had his own company for 20+ years.  Starting a Podcast is more complicated than I thought.  Between divorce attorneys, tax attorneys & CPAs, it's been a challenge.  But with the help of family, my Podcast will debut BEFORE we see any hurricane threat.  It will NOT replace my WVUE Facebook/blog post, which is free.  Rather, it will supplement my post and expand in detail my thoughts & opinions.  

You will have to subscribe/pay ($2/mo) to listen to my voice.  Unlike most local weathercasters, I will give you what I think and not just repeat the ideas given to them by NHC/NWS.  My Podcast will not have a time limit like the local weathercasters do.  It will not over hype a storm 7-14 days away.  Nope, the purpose will be to explain, in a calm voice, the possible dangers down the road.  Our goal is to launch the sign-up time beginning 4 PM this Friday, with the actual 1st podcast airing on Monday, August 11th.  The offer is $24 for a one-year subscription.  That's $2/month or one Powerball ticket per month.  Watch for it tomorrow.  The tropics remain active in the Pacific, but not in the Atlantic.

Yesterday, I mentioned the Pacific is active due to the positive/favorable Phase (rising air) of the MJO.  One person commented, What is the MJO?  It was discovered by two researchers (Roland Madden & Paul Julian) at NCAR in Boulder in 1971.  It basically is an atmospheric wave of either rising or sinking air that traverses the Tropics. It is referred to as an Oscillation, hence it's called the MJO.  Typically, if one Basin is active, the other is not.  But that pattern shifts every 30-60 days.  Look at last year.

June, July & August were fairly average/normal.  But then the MJO shifted to favorable & September & October went nuts with 10 named storms in 6 weeks.  There have been years when the MJO switch didn't flip on.  Remember 1992?   There were only 6 named storms.  However, one of them (Andrew) leveled South Florida before coming to Louisiana.   The old adage, "IT only takes one" remains true.  It's all about location.  

Wouldn't it be nice to see 2025 stay quiet like 1992?  Enough anxiety already.  There are more waves coming off of Africa, but the dust remains strong.

The one swirl east of the Islands is surrounded by dust, and no model develops it. There is an upper trough aligned SW to NE along the Texas coast.

We actually have a cool front on the surface map.  Look at all the 70s behind the front.  Sweet.  It has to get cooler up north before we cool down here.  This front is not expected to reach us, but it could increase our rain chances.

Compared to yesterday, rain coverage was way less today.  IF that upper trough along the Texas coast drifts our way, rain coverage should shoot back up for the weekend.

You know each day between now & early September will be hot & humid with spotty storms.  Dr. Klotzbach (Colorado State University) will have his next tropical update coming on August 6th. My guess is he lowers his numbers.  IF you watch TWC, they daily remind us that 91% of the season is yet to come.  I say enjoy the quiet.  Let's hope we iron out all the kinks so we can open subscriptions to my Podcast beginning tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

Central/Eastern Pacific Going Nuts, Atlantic Quiet, When Will It Flip.

I've often mentioned when the Pacific Basin is active, the Atlantic Basin is quiet.  Usually, that's because one basin is in the favorable (Rising air) phase of the MJO while the other is in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase.  That is obvious on today's satellite views. The top is the Pacific with the Atlantic on the bottom.

It seems every time a cluster of storms develop, they're gone the next day.  There is one broad swirl out in the middle of the Atlantic, but lots of Saharan Dust is on the north side, limiting any development.  No model does anything with this feature.

The bottom view clearly shows how the MJO is in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase.  Each day we go without a tropical threat means one day closer to Fall & cold fronts. There are clusters of storms along the northern Gulf coast, but these are mainly daytime heating-fueled storms.

I hate this time of the year as the weather moves so slowly resulting in extreme rainfall amounts in short time frames.

Many locations received much-welcomed cooling rainfall today.Look at how much less hot it is where it's raining.

Don't look for any significant changes for the rest of this week, except it could be several degrees less hot.  Finally...

Sign up for the Bob Breck Podcast will begin on Friday, with the Podcast being launched on Monday, August 11th.  I am requiring only a $2 /month charge for a one-year subscription ($24/yr) payable in advance through a credit card.  The frequency could be 3-4 times/day in a hurricane crisis or several times a week without a threat.  During the "off season", the podcast will focus on celebrities and current event topics(Global Warming).   Remember, you will be able to get the podcast on your cell phone (Bob Breck in the palm of your hand) when you want it, wherever you are. It will not just repeat the words of the NHC or NWS.  For the cost of one Powerball ticket a month, you can become part of hearing my voice & opinions.  My WVUE Facebook page will still be there for free.  The podcast will allow me to expand on that post, hopefully reducing your level of anxiety & stress that the major media companies seem to overhype daily.  Hope you'll come join me.  More details tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

Podcast Coming Soon, FB Blog Going Nowhere

 As I mentioned before, we're hard at work behind the scenes getting a podcast ready for launch. This new format will allow me to dive deeper into the details of my FB post and gives you a chance to actually hear my voice, a voice you trusted for decades due to my experience and calmness during hurricane threats. Ginger, Linda & Ellen asked if the podecast means the FB blog is going away.  Absolutely not!  I am under contract to FOX 8 as their hurricane consultant for the rest of the 2025 season. Don't worry, my Facebook posting will continue as long as Ch. 8 wants me.

So why the podcast?  It will allow for longer, more in-depth discussions about what's really going on, plus I'll be able to answer reader questions. During a hurricane crisis in the Gulf, I usually FB post 3-4 times a day.  It'll be the same with the podcast.  During times of quiet weather, the podcast might be just several times a week.  During the off season, frequency will be once a week.  IF you can afford to buy one Powerball ticket every month, you can afford my podcast.

But it won't always be about storms and weather. During the quieter months, I'll be able to share stories about my past life (Marine Corps Boot camp!), bring on guests, discuss the current warming CYCLE and what are the drivers? etc.  I'll do my best to keep it informative & entertaining.  Think of this podcast as OUR podcast...something we build together & something you'll want to tune into each week.  More details, including how to subscribe later this week.

While the Central & Eastern Pacific ocean remains very active with a major hurricane south of Hawaii & a Tropical Storm right behind, the Atlantic basin stays quiet.  However, it's showing signs of life.  let's begin wide and focus down to the Caribbean.

Although models do not develop either cluster of storms, it appears the Saharan Dust Layer remains the limiting factor..  Note the lack of T-Storms on the color Infrared view.

Typically once into August, the dust layer weakens allowing for these tropical waves to sometimes develop.  But not in the next 7-10 days.  Closer to home, a cluster of storms has formed in the western Caribbean.

 

No model picks up on this and NHC hasn't highlighted it.  IF we are to see development pop up during the next 10-14 days, it'll be closer to home.  Right now, there is another UPPER low over the eastern Gulf making for wind shear & a hostile environment.

As the upper high weakens and leaves us, daily storms will return bringing some relief from record heat.  Today's high was close to the record of 99.

Like most summer afternoons, heavy storms bubble up with drenching rains and vivid lightning.

But if you don't get a storm, it's disgustingly hot & humid.  Look at the Calendar.  We only have about 6-8 weeks before those cooling fronts start coming..  Get ready for my podcast and stay tuned!

The Bob Breck Podcast Coming Soon, Heat Wave Lingers Till Rain Returns

As I mentioned yesterday, I've got some exciting news to share.  I'm launching a Bob Breck Podcast.  We're aiming to go live on August 11th or sooner, IF a storm threatens the Gulf.  This will be a subscription-based podcast, but we've worked really hard to keep it affordable and accessible for all.  I'm truly excited for this next chapter of my life and hope you, my loyal fans, join me on this journey.  It will begin with audio, with video to follow shortly. As always, I'll be here to explain more fully the weather with that calm voice of reason you've come to count on.  Stay tuned for more updates on how to join, having Bob Breck's voice in the palm of your hands. 

The reason I am starting a podcast is to counter the over hype that's on the internet.  I grabbed these two examples off my phone today.  My purpose is to DECREASE your anxiety, not to hype something that MIGHT be there in 10-14 days.  I will give you my opinion and not just repeat what NWS/NHC puts out in their discussions.  I'm feeling good that things will stay quiet for the next 10-14 days. Here's why.

As we approach the heart (Aug. 15th to Oct. 10th) of hurricane season, only the Central and Eastern Pacific are active with one Hurricane (Iona) and several potential named storms.

All the action is in the CPAC & EPAC, with one Hurricane going well south of Hawaii.  Typically, when the Pacific is active, the Atlantic is not.  Another limiting factor so far this summer is the Saharan Dust layer that keeps coming.

You can clearly see it on the daylight satellite view.  Yet all the internet is awash with waves coming off Africa, developing into something.  Sooner or later, that will happen.  But what's the point of crying wolf over every little disturbance?  The past two over the northern Gulf are good examples.

The Gulf & Caribbean are clear for now as there is too much wind shear.  The upper heat dome is now to our west, moving into Texas.  We should see a few storms pop up Tuesday PM with more widespread coverage for the rest of this week.

The eastern 2/3 of America is in misery because of the heat.  Back in my day, we just called it summer.  Now it's called "Excessive Heat Warning".

With rain coverage less than 5%, temperatures in most locations are flirting with record highs in the upper 90s.

Until the upper highs drift farther away, allowing for our daily storms, the heat wave will continue.  Just use common sense during the heat of the day.  Again, get ready to sign up for my Podcast coming in August.  Details coming soon.  Stay tuned!