Thursday, July 31, 2025

Bob Breck Podcast Nearing Reality, Weak Front Might Get Close

I have always worked for a company and didn't realize what is involved in running your own business.  Thankfully, my oldest son (Rob) has had his own company for 20+ years.  Starting a Podcast is more complicated than I thought.  Between divorce attorneys, tax attorneys & CPAs, it's been a challenge.  But with the help of family, my Podcast will debut BEFORE we see any hurricane threat.  It will NOT replace my WVUE Facebook/blog post, which is free.  Rather, it will supplement my post and expand in detail my thoughts & opinions.  


You will have to subscribe/pay ($2/mo) to listen to my voice.  Unlike most local weathercasters, I will give you what I think and not just repeat the ideas given to them by NHC/NWS.  My Podcast will not have a time limit like the local weathercasters do.  It will not over hype a storm 7-14 days away.  Nope, the purpose will be to explain, in a calm voice, the possible dangers down the road.  Our goal is to launch the sign-up time beginning 4 PM this Friday, with the actual 1st podcast airing on Monday, August 11th.  The offer is $24 for a one-year subscription.  That's $2/month or one Powerball ticket per month.  Watch for it tomorrow.  The tropics remain active in the Pacific, but not in the Atlantic.


Yesterday, I mentioned the Pacific is active due to the positive/favorable Phase (rising air) of the MJO.  One person commented, What is the MJO?  It was discovered by two researchers (Roland Madden & Paul Julian) at NCAR in Boulder in 1971.  It basically is an atmospheric wave of either rising or sinking air that traverses the Tropics. It is referred to as an Oscillation, hence it's called the MJO.  Typically, if one Basin is active, the other is not.  But that pattern shifts every 30-60 days.  Look at last year.



June, July & August were fairly average/normal.  But then the MJO shifted to favorable & September & October went nuts with 10 named storms in 6 weeks.  There have been years when the MJO switch didn't flip on.  Remember 1992?   There were only 6 named storms.  However, one of them (Andrew) leveled South Florida before coming to Louisiana.   The old adage, "IT only takes one" remains true.  It's all about location.  


Wouldn't it be nice to see 2025 stay quiet like 1992?  Enough anxiety already.  There are more waves coming off of Africa, but the dust remains strong.



The one swirl east of the Islands is surrounded by dust, and no model develops it. There is an upper trough aligned SW to NE along the Texas coast.




We actually have a cool front on the surface map.  Look at all the 70s behind the front.  Sweet.  It has to get cooler up north before we cool down here.  This front is not expected to reach us, but it could increase our rain chances.



Compared to yesterday, rain coverage was way less today.  IF that upper trough along the Texas coast drifts our way, rain coverage should shoot back up for the weekend.


You know each day between now & early September will be hot & humid with spotty storms.  Dr. Klotzbach (Colorado State University) will have his next tropical update coming on August 6th. My guess is he lowers his numbers.  IF you watch TWC, they daily remind us that 91% of the season is yet to come.  I say enjoy the quiet.  Let's hope we iron out all the kinks so we can open subscriptions to my Podcast beginning tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

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