Bruce Katz's late weather programs yesterday showed us an area over the northern Gulf that NHC hatched out for development. When they only give it a 10% chance for development, that translates to 1) it's not going to happen or 2) We're covering our butts (CYA). Seeing this morning's Tropical Weather Outlook stay the same (10%) tells me NHC feels the Gulf remains a hostile environment (too much upper wind shear), Let's investigate.
There appears to be some kind of boundary developing from off the Carolina coasts southwestward into the northern Gulf. The first wave of T-Storms is pushing westward mainly offshore from LA/MS. The comforting thing for me is seeing a well defined UPPER low just SE of Miami drifting westward. Upper lows create wind shear limiting tropical development. IF any surface low were to form in the next 1-2 days, development would be over the WESTERN Gulf. As I get ready to leave for Grand Isle, I'm feeling pretty confident that nothing is going to develop and the Tarpon Rodeo will go off with only a few problem storms like we have every summer. Remember, you can still register for the Grand Prize ($10,000) drawing on Saturday night.
Just go to tarponrodeo.org and register. Odds are really very good I could call out your name on Saturday night's awards ceremony. We do have clusters of storms over the NE Gulf.
The first batch is already almost by us. Don't let the weathercasters scare you with models showing rain potential. Those totals rarely verify. Watch the NHC's trend on their TWO coming out at 1 PM. I doubt it will increase much. I'll be gone for a few days as I need a break from lawyers. I'll post on Sunday when I'm back from Grand Isle. Enjoy your week & weekend. Stay tuned!
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