Obviously, Hurricane Erin is the major story today and will be through this weekend into next week. More on her shortly. The other player was Invest 98 L over the SW Gulf that appeared to have a brief chance to develop before making landfall. Let's begin with 98 L.
A recon plane found what radar views were showing. The center of 98 L has moved inland near Brownsville and no longer has a chance to develop. It still has the potential to produce heavy rainfall over the Rio Grande basin tonight & tomorrow. Our rainfall today is not associated with 98 L. Now, back to Erin.
Erin finally moved close enough for Hurricane Hunter aircraft to reach her & they found her winds sufficient to upgrade her to this year's first hurricane. Satellite views confirm Erin is getting better organized, and computer model guidance indicates she will begin rapid intensification as she passes north of Puerto Rico. NHC has been remarkably accurate on her track so far.
Erin could become a massive monster storm (Cat. 4) this weekend. All models keep her far east of the U.S. Coastline. So what could go wrong?
My only concern on the future track of Erin is this. I've seen some storms in the past that got so huge that their curve to the north was delayed. It's the old mass + momentum issue. IF Erin gets to Cat 4 or 5, her change in direction could be delayed farther to the west, bringing the Carolina coasts into play. RIGHT NOW, there is NO model that does that. Let's keep watching to see if Erin follows the NHC's forecast track, splitting the "goalpost" between the U.S. & Bermuda. I'm sure her satellite views will be stunning as she grows in intensity over the next several days.
The Gulf is quiet for this weekend, but several models are forming more storms coming off of Africa in the 7-10 day timeframe. Since I've started a Podcast, I'm hoping more of you sign up to hear & see what I feel, as my opinion sometimes is different from the NHC & NWS.
Am I worth $2/month? That's all it costs to hear The Weather Authority, who has 54 years of experience (1971-2025) tracking the greatest storms on Earth. Stay tuned!
2 comments:
Hi Bob! Thank you for your expertise, as always. Looking to explore your podcast. What service can I find you?
Hi Mike, After you subscribe you can use Pocket Casts to watch the podcasts. The easiest way is to just watch it on his website bobbreck.com
Post a Comment