We all have seen little systems in the past that seem to blow up overnight. That is what's happening over the Southwestern Gulf. Yesterday, NHC started talking about a low (10%) chance for development. Today it's up to 40% and they quickly ordered a Recon Plane to investigate this afternoon. Let's look at the graphics, beginning with yesterday on top.
Clearly, yesterday's tropical wave has become better organized with T=Storms around the center. NHC has designated it INVEST 98 L, and model runs suggest it's heading to the upper Mexican/south Texas coast.
Whatever might form, the upper flow will steer it into South Texas. That might bring heavy rains to the Rio Grande, but it will have no impact on us. NHC has chosen not to issue any advisories despite being only 2 days from landfall. In the recent past, NHC has issued PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) advisories when a system develops near land. Not doing that with Invest 98 L. As for the other main tropical news, Tropical Storm Erin keeps churning to the WNW and is still expected to become the season's first hurricane either tonight or on Friday. A recon plane will reach Erin shortly so NHC will have better data than just estimates from satellite imagery. It is moving farther away from the Saharan dust and over warmer & warmer water temperatures.
Even though the latest coordinates indicate Erin is starting a slow turn to the north, her impacts will affect some of the northern Virgin Islands. The local weather offices there have issued Tropical Storm Watches (yellow boxes)
NHC has been super consistent in their messaging and are sticking with their track that splits the goal posts between the North Carolina coast and Bermuda. All indications favor strengthening to a major (Cat. 3) Hurricane.
The thinking remains the same, as the Atlantic Ridge/blocking High over the central Atlantic doesn't appear to be building westward. That should allow the turn to the north to happen. So Erin & 98 L will not be our concern. Some models hintthat a Gulf disturbance might happen during the final week of August. No concerns during the next 7-10 days. Otherwise, it's been a typical August day in South LA/MS.
Get under a shower, and you get some cooling relief.
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