On August 6th, most of the experts who issue seasonal forecasts updated their earlier predictions. I thought we see them lower their earlier numbers, but nope, they are sticking with the numbers calling for slightly above normal number of named storms. Translation...expect more small swirls way out from land being named just like Dexter was. Gotta get to those numbers.
In reviewing the explanations as to why no change in numbers, it's because not much has changed since April. I did see where Weather Bell Analytics extended their higher risk area farther to the west reaching the Texas coast. On top is their April prediction.
Notice their newer prediction goes west of Houston on the higher risk area. That is concerning IF that proves reality as it includes all of Louisiana. It is why I'm suggesting you go sign up for my new Podcast beginning either Sunday or Monday, depending IF anything pops up over the eastern Gulf this weekend.
Right now, all we have are disorganized clusters of storms. NHC doesn't believe anything will form.
If you look at the current set up, we have the upper Heat Dome over west Texas and New Mexico with the Gulf & Bahamas dominated by upper lows, which should limit any development through this weekend. Out in the Atlantic, NHC is turning INVEST 86 L way to the north making it another "fish storm".
Right now, it is surrounded by Dust to its north & east, but could be named over the weekend (Erin) if it can rotate around the Atlantic ridge and get away from the dust.
The current set up has the center of the "Bermuda High" no where near Bermuda. That's why I like to call it the Atlantic Ridge. IF we keep this set up into September, most storms that will develop could make the turn to the north before affecting the U.S. However, tropical waves are lined up off of Africa and several models bring them westward at much lower latitudes even into the Gulf during the third week of August.
Nothing will happen until these waves move away from all the Saharan dust. Rather than frighten you showing model solutions at 14 days (very inaccurate), those discussions will be left to my Podcast. Hope I see more of you subscribe and become part of the discussion next week.
Have a great weekend despite the heat & humidity. Only 4-6 weeks before fronts start coming. However, these could be very active weeks regarding tropical threats. As long as they don't come here. Stay tuned!
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