African Wave Now Invest 97 L, NHC Increases Odds For Development

Yesterday, NHC decreased chances for Invest 96 L to develop, but today they are tracking a new area coming off of Africa.  It has a mid-level spin, and they have designated it Invest 97 L.  Their hatched area has been increased to 50% chances of it being our next named storm.  In the short term, it still has lots of Saharan dust to overcome.

Several models (GFS, A.I.) are bullish for development, but today's runs have shifted the track much farther to the north & east.  Yesterday's runs both had the storm getting into the Gulf.  Both now turn it to the north EAST of Florida.  Why? Look at the current surface map.

The blocking "Bermuda High" is centered way too far to the east in the central Atlantic.  That should promote a weakness in the atmosphere that will allow the turn to the north to occur long before affecting the U.S. Here are two models that have similar solutions, with the GFS on top.

The bottom is the new A.I. model.  Remarkably similar as the valid time are both for Wednesday August 20th, midday.  As we all know, that far out in time, models have great uncertainty.  Let's see if that trend to the north is there again tomorrow.

Regardless, the first hurricane is likely to form by late next week or slightly behind historical averages.  My Podcast begins on Monday, and now is a good time to sign up as the heart of the hurricane season has arrived.

The other area off the East coast NHC is monitoring is so far out to sea it is not worth our attention.

I am looking at the clusters of storms that surround Florida, but no model picks up on development.  There are hints that the tropical moisture associated with this disturbance will come our way later next week.

We do have lots of storms south of Lake P., and it wouldn't take much to nudge that moisture farther north during the next couple of days.  We will be posting the information on how to access my podcast tomorrow and Monday.  But you have to subscribe to hear my voice & see my explanations.

The cost is only $2/month or $24/year.  That's a no-brainer to relieve your anxiety.  I'm much better than Xanax!  Well, maybe not!  Stay tuned!