The Tropical Table Is Set, When Will Dinner Be Served?

I am a subscriber to Weather Bell Analytics just so I can see what Joe Bastardi is thinking.  Today's comments were priceless as Joe believes the MJO is going into the Favarable (Rising air) phase for the next 30-45 days.   That should mean tropical activity should increase if not explode. " That does not mean it will happen It means I think the table is set, so if dinner is served, no one should be surprised".    Here's the Weather Bell's greatest risk area this year followed by NHC latest Tropical Weather Outlooks.

In the short term (next 7 days), any tropical activity will not be our problem.  Beyond August 15th, we'll have to start paying attention, and that's why I'm starting a Podcast. Go to www.bobbreck.com to subscribe. Let's explain why any short-term development will be limited.  First, the Atlantic, where the waves are lining up over interior Africa.

However, look at the Saharan dust that is still streaming westward over the MDR (Main Development Region). INVEST 86 L allows computer models to run track solutions.

This might be our next named storm (Erin), but the dust could limit that.  The other area off the Carolina coast won't ever be our problem.

The surface low is inland over the Carolinas with an upper low over the Bahamas.  Again, all are limiting factors for development.  There is a weak wave moving over Florida, but there is another upper low over the southern Gulf.  All combined should mean no tropical development into next week.

You can see how the real heat is out to our west while the east is cooler with the clouds and showers.

Some folks are getting welcomed rains and cooler temps today.

Like most summer days, this weekend will be hot, humid with spotty storms.  Grabbed these graphics from Zack Fradella this morning for the following weekend in August.

These are the tropical waves currently over Africa.  The concern to me is that they are at lower latitudes and could likely get into the Caribbean.  My Podcast starts on Monday, and you can subscribe by going to www.bobbreck.com.

Stay tuned!