Tropics Are Getting Active, But Not Exploding, Gulf Wave Next Week

OK, maybe we are slightly ahead of schedule in the number of named storms, but as my middle son Ryan would say, "Two were nothing-burgers".  The last (Dexter) formed so far out to sea that it has only affected the shipping lanes.  When you look at the average dates of named storms, hurricanes & major hurricanes, we're actually going to be slightly behind schedule.

The Saharan Dust is still visible on satellite views and that should limit any rapid development for the next 4-5 days in the MDR.  NHC continues to highlight an area for development, and today's model runs all have any storm recurving to the north long before affecting land areas.

The other area NHC is highlighting is off the East Coast.  They have decreased chances for development from yesterday.

So if nothing forms off the Carolina coast, T.U.T.T. (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) lows dominate the Tropics, making for less than favorable conditions for development.  We will get through the first 10 days of August without a tropical threat. That doesn't mean we have nothing to watch.  There is a weak wave moving over South Florida, but models do nothing with it.

We all know, sooner or later, we will have a Gulf threat in August & September.  Before things get crazy, why don't you go sign up for my new Podcast coming Monday.  It will enhance/expand on my WVUE Facebook free post and will cost you $2/month to subscribe.  Such a bargain darling! Don't be left out of the discussion.  It'll give me an opportunity to answer your comment questions.

August into early September is often a dead time of year outside of Tropical activity.  By mid-September we start to see weak fronts reach us, and by October, we start to feel the cooler air.  That's only 4-6 weeks away, Gang!  You can see the signs that the seasons are starting to change.

Look at the well-defined front approaching the Pacific Northwest.  It's only a matter of time.  But for now.

The few showers around have cooled some folks this afternoon.

So until we get some tropical activity in the Gulf, the seven-day remains useless. Stay tuned and go sign up for my new Podcast.