Humberto is a Monster, Imelda Coming Soon

I'm doing an early post as I want to watch the LSU game this afternoon!  Several things have changed overnight.  None of them will have any impacts on the Gulf.  As NHC predicted, Humberto has become a major Hurricane (Cat 4), albeit slightly faster than expected.  I mentioned yesterday that scenario might change soon to be Imelda's future track.  Let's begin wide and then focus in close.

I've circled the two systems along with the leftover frontal boundary that has pushed well off our coast.  Let's begin with the stronger system, Humberto.

He has the classic "doughnut hole" loop on the color view and might even briefly become a Cat. 5 today & Sunday.   NHC's thinking hasn't changed as the forecast track curves it around uncomfortably close to Bermuda.

But because Humberto got stronger sooner, that has influenced the spaghetti plots that have  done a flip-flop from yesterday.  On Friday, models predicted landfall near Charleston, while today they keep it offshore.  The rainfall total, instead of being in the feet range, have dropped down to only a couple of inches.  IF that proves reality, that should keep any major flooding in the Carolinas from happening. Here's today's forecast with the Euro on top.

Go look at yesterday's FB post and compare solutions.  What a difference!

Unlike Humberto, Soon-to-be Imelda doesn't have that tight cluster of T-storms around her center yet.  So what might change the future track of Imelda?

NHC does make her a hurricane, turning her out to sea.  Here's what we know.  Confidence in Humberto's track is high since it is a major storm.

It will make the turn and not threaten the U.S.  But Imelda is not well defined, and there is way less confidence in her forecast track.

In the short term, she should parallel the Florida coast before stalling and then drifting towards the NE.  However, I see a blocking high building to her north next week, and that might turn her around, making a loop.  She still could be a threat for the NE coast later next week.  Something to watch for, but it has no impact for the Gulf.

The Gulf remains a hostile environment with dry air north of the frontal boundary and lots of wind shear too.  It appears we'll have no tropical threats through the first week of October.  Finally...

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