PTC 9 Forms, Carolina's Flood Threat, Humberto Becoming A Monster

 As we are enjoying a northerly flow of drier air that will protect us this weekend, things east of Florida are following yesterday's thinking.  Hurricane Humberto continues to strengthen & is expected to become a strong Cat. 4 over this weekend.  NHC has designated Invest 94 L PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) # 9.  Let's begin with Humberto first since he is far stronger.

Just as yesterday the eastern circle is Humberto with the middle PTC 9 and the far left circle a low level spin along the cold front down in the Gulf.  More on that later.  The color view of Humberto clearly defines an eye and he's now a Cat. 3 hurricane.

The NHC forecast track still curves Humberto away from the U.S., but Bermuda could see some impacts as it's on the stronger side of the storm.  Let's focus on the soon to be Imelda.  The Gulf (Us) remain protected this weekend by an upper trough that will keep Imelda out of the Gulf.

All models take PTC 9  northward parallel to Florida's east coast taking her onshore over the Carolinas. Both of the major models are close in that solution.  The Euro is on top followed by the GFS with the valid time being Tuesday (9-30) afternoon.

Note the GFS is faster with the center already inland while the Euro is slower stalling her near the coast.  That results in different rainfall projections. The GFS is on top followed by the Euro.

Regardless which model verifies, it appears the Carolinas are in for a serious rain event next week.  But what could change those NHC forecast tracks?  The first scenario (top) is IF Humberto is so strong, it begins to absorb soon to be Imelda and turn her BEFORE reaching the Carolina coast resulting in minimal impacts.

The second scenario (bottom) has Imelda moving faster ahead of Humberto and being influenced by the eastern cut off upper Low turning her westward threatening Georgia.  Bottom line, neither system is our problem, but it's and East Coast "pay attention" weekend.  An interesting little feature is along the end of the cold front down in the Gulf.

There is a small swirl on satellite views, but the northerly flow of drier air will prevent anything from forming this weekend.  Something I'll be watching for next week, but no model picks up on it.

Today's front has brought very little in the way of cooler air.  however, look at the dew points where yesterday's 70s have been replaced by the good feeling 50s & 60s.  It will be a great feeling Fall weekend!

Finally, this story was in the Weekend edition of Inside/Out in the Times-Picayune on Sept. 28,2024.

What a difference a year makes.!  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!