I've been watching many channels trying to see what the thinking is regarding the lack of tropical activity WORLDWIDE. Yeah, the guessing is the persistent Saharan Dust layer over the Atlantic, along with too much wind shear & stable/sinking air. But how do you explain the lack of activity in the Western Pacific Basin as we reach the peak of Hurricane Season? Globally, there is only one Hurricane (Kiko) across the planet. Let's begin in the Pacific and work our way eastward. Stunning the lack of activity.
Hurricane Kiko is now down to a Cat. 1, staying well north of the islands with another area in the EPAC that might develop. The Atlantic remains dead according to NHC, but I'm finding several things of interest.
Let's begin in the Atlantic east of the islands.
A strong tropical wave is moving into the northern islands, while a weak mid-level swirl is down over the Atlantic. It's at such a low latitude that IF it developed, it would run into South America. Probably why NHC isn't talking about it. There are other swirls closer to us. The one east of Florida is moving towards the old frontal boundary and should be absorbed up the East coast.
The spin west of Tampa Bay has been there for days, and radar does show some curvature. However, the upper shear will limit any development and push this system across Florida tomorrow. Now, I'm sure many of you have seen the last two runs of the GFS? It's at it again, developing a Gulf storm in the 10-14 day time frame. The top graphic is valid for Friday 9-19, with the bottom graphic valid the next day. I love that we're the bullseye at 10 days.
As we have discussed many times, model solutions beyond 5 days have increasing uncertainty. Remember the last Invest out in the Atlantic? 99 L was given a 90% chance to develop, and 2 days later it was gone. Let's not get excited by something that isn't there yet and might never be there. It's why you should sign up at bobbreck.com for my new podcast in case a storm does get into the Gulf.
The cost is $2/month, and it will supplement my WVUE Facebook post. When the weather is quiet, I will have interviews with local & national personalities. You can subscribe and watch last week's podcast with David Bernard. Joe Bastardi with WeatherBell Analytics suggests the tropical switch will flip between September 15th, lasting into mid-October. Go sign up now and enjoy listening & watching the little fella once again. Nationwide, there is a pattern flip happening now.
The upper trough over the Great Lakes is retreating back into Canada, but it brought another beautiful Fall day to folks up north.
That good feel air made it all the way off the Louisiana coast as our dew points dropped into the 50s. Don't get used to that, as by Tuesday PM we'll notice the muggies coming back. Clouds over the Florida Panhandle are already moving back to the west.
Despite all day sunshine, temps have stayed in the 80s with low humidity. One more good feeling morning tomorrow.
There is a slight chance for a few showers tomorrow and again on Wednesday before we dry out for the end of the week. Those of you who have subscribed to my podcast, look for it later this evening. Haven't had anything to talk about, but will discuss what the upcoming pattern shift might mean for tropical activity as we reach the peak of hurricane season. Gotta subscribe to watch it. 7 cents a day is a no-brainer! Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment