Models Shift Danger To Carolinas, Cold Front Protects Us, Great Fall Weekend

I'm starting this podcast early and will add the official NHC info when it comes out.  I just wanted to get out what I'm seeing and why the "Fujiwhara Effect" might not keep future Imelda away from the East Coast.  Let's begin wide and then focus in on our two tropical systems.  The far right circle is strengthening Tropical Storm Humberto, with the middle circle Invest 94 L.  I'm circling the far left just for us to watch over the weekend IF a spin-up might form down along the front over the southern Gulf.  No model predicts that and NHC doesn't mention it. 

The two systems to the right are clearly better defined, with Humberto getting better organized this afternoon.  I'm certain the 4 PM advisory will increase his winds, but the track should not change much, turning to the north away from the U.S.  The big change is with Invest 94 L.  I've placed a low where I see the low-level circulation just north of the Dominican Republic.

However, the T-Storms are not co-located with the low-level center.  It appears the low-level center is racing WNW faster than previous model guidance, and that is why I believe Humberto will not influence 94 L.  Morning spaghetti models all shifted westward, bringing landfall for 94 L (Imelda?) into the Carolinas.

The Euro (middle graphic) and the GFS both have this disturbance making landfall on Monday afternoon and evening.  My gut tells me NHC is going to issue one of those PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) advisories either this afternoon or early on Friday.  Regardless, we are protected by an upper trough that will bring down a cold front, drying us out for this weekend and deflecting any tropical issues to our east.

We have been under this protective upper trough for all of September.  Will it last through October?  IF you subscribe to the Bob Breck podcast, you saw & heard Hurricane Expert Bryan Norcross give his "gut feeling" yesterday.  Just go to bobbreck.com and subscribe ($2/month !) to listen to all past podcasts.  Just recorded Jim Cantore yesterday, and you won't want to miss his life story.

Doing these podcasts has brought me back from a serious depression episode, and I'd appreciate more of my 140K Facebook followers to sign up.  Thanks to my sons for recognizing something was "not right" with Dad.  The little fella needs your support, Gang.  Here's the latest advisories beginning with Humberto. As expected based on satellite views, he's stronger.

NHC brings Humberto to a Cat. 3 Hurricane over the weekend.  But much like Erin, they "split the goalposts" between the U.S. & Bermuda.  He is not our concern. And neither will be soon to be Imelda as the Gulf is protected by a cold front.

There is not much cooler air behind this front, but it is much drier and this weekend should have that good feeling into Sunday.

The heaviest storms are now south & east of NOLA, but the clouds have made us way less hot.

So even though it will still be warm this weekend, the lower humidity will make it feel great!  And for those of you who are wondering when I will call the "Fat Lady" to sing, remember Cat. 2 Hurricane Zeta made landfall over Cocodrie on Oct. 28, 2020.  Haven't even called her yet!  Stay tuned!